Welcome to the week 14 Official NFL Power Rankings! With circus catches and beatdowns alongside great games, there was plenty to discuss even before a MNF Scorigami that might already be airing on ESPN classic. 32/32 Reporting

#		Team	Δ	Record	Comment
1.		Chiefs	--	12-1	The Dolphins gave the Chiefs all they could handle in the first quarter of Sunday's game, but the Chiefs once again proved that when they are focused, they are the most dangerous team in the NFL. Travis Kelce, the NFL's leading receiver currently, had another monster game showing why he's a future hall of famer. However, after having five 10+ point wins in the first eight weeks of the season, the Chiefs last five wins have all been won by one score. Will this trend ultimately matter come playoff time? It's hard to argue with results, as the Chiefs 12-1 record is the best record through 13 games in franchise history. The ultimate barometer for the Chiefs is this week as they travel to play the Saints, hopefully with Drew Brees. Many questions will be answered in this clash of two top five teams.
2.		Packers	+2	10-3	There always seems to be one Lions-Packer game a year that ends up being some kind of adventure. Rodgers and Adams were as good as ever but the Lions kept on lingering throughout the game. Mason "Silver Fox" Crosby nailed an insurance 58 yard field goal with 3:30 to play and made a touchdown-saving tackle on the immediate kickoff. Aside from Crosby, the special teams really leave a lot to be desired, especially after the hands team almost allowed a onside kick recovery (c'mon y'all I don't need Bostic flashbacks). Packers officially won the division game and are now the projected 1 seed, which is pretty neat ngl. Onto a Saturday game I guess?
3.		Bills	+2	10-3	For a team that was searching desperately in 2019 for a signature win, the 2020 Bills have found them everywhere they turn. This team has had one of the toughest schedules in the league, but except for a couple games they've shown up every time they've had to. This is the second-best team in the conference. The Bills bandwagons are circling now. Josh Allen's extending his baseball glove-sized hand. He says "get in nerds, we're goin' to the Super Bowl."
4.		Saints	-1	10-3	This loss = Hurts. Dennis Allen seemingly had no answers for the rookie QB and then Miles Sanders piled on as well. "All the things we didn't want to allow happen, happened in that game." This was Sean Payton's post-game assessment and it's fair. Taysom Hill had an acceptable statline but it hides how sloppy he looked on the field. The defense struggled with its assignment to contain Hurts and keep him from getting outside the pocket - a worrying sign considering the next QB on the schedule.
5.		Steelers	-3	11-2	The Steelers schedule has been insane. 6 days between NYG and DEN. 14 days between HOU and PHI. 10 days between JAX and BAL. But with that BAL game, the Steelers played them, WFT and BUF in 12 days. 3 games in 12 days. The team is out of LBs and OL. This has been a challenging season for everyone, but this is unprecedented. The Steelers have 8 days until CIN, then 6 days until IND. 10 out of 16 games played with an irregular schedule? You can argue the drops are kicking their ass, but this schedule has been brutal. No wonder they've lost 2 straight.
6.		Rams	--	9-4	Imagine only scoring 3 points in a game.
7.		Colts	+1	9-4	Kenny Moore is a player underrated by national media but massively valuable to the Colts. GM Chris Ballard made re-signing him a priority after his breakout 2018 season. Moore has been a reliable performer throughout his tenure as a Colt and added an exclamation point with his insane one-handed interception on Sunday.
8.		Titans	+1	9-4	Derrick Henry had his second 200+ yard 2 TD game against the Jaguars on Sunday. The performance made Henry the 7th player to rush for 1,500+ yards and 14+ TDs through 13 games.
9.		Seahawks	+1	9-4	Nothing cures suicidal thoughts losing like playing the Jets, baby. Sunday was never much of a game, as it was all Seahawks all day. Russell Wilson threw for 4 touchdowns, Jamal Adams broke the single season sack record for defensive backs, and Geno Smith got to play a full quarter against the team that drafted him. What a way to get over a bad loss to the Giants. Up next the Seahawks will take on their final NFC East opponent of the season; Football Team.
10.		Ravens	+2	8-5	This ranker is a brown man, writing about how Lamar Jackson lost 20 pounds dropping some brown, dropping a TD to Brown, to go ahead against the Browns. They go for two. So in response, K-hunt ties the game, 42-42. In response, the Llama sets up the GOAT to nail a 54-yarder, 16th game winner of his career! To say nothing else of the game -- 9 total fucking rushing touchdowns, tying a record held since two defunct teams played each other before anyone on reddit was born... and Jackson runs for a MNF QB record 124 yards -- but still gets all the clutch plays done with his arm, with this middling group of receivers. The even greater news amidst all this is that the schedule doesn't look so bad in the closing stretch, and inspired play like this past Monday from the offense will ease the burden of the Ravens' gradually depleting secondary. Best wishes to Trace McSorely who made an extremely commendable effort to set them up for Lamar's return.
11.		Browns	-4	9-4	Did you bet the over? The Browns and Ravens combined for 89 points in an absolute rollercoaster of a game. While they did not win, the Browns have shown they are contenders. With two games to go a real shot at the playoffs is on the table. The Browns will face the Giants in another prime time game.
12.		Buccaneers	-1	8-5	The Buccaneers pulled off a 26-14 win over the Vikings, bringing their playoff chances to 94%. Vikes kicker Dan Bailey channeled his inner Gary Anderson to win the Bucs' game ball on an 0/3 kicking performance with an additional missed XP. Rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. played a disruptive game against his dad's former team and is looking like he has the potential to be one of the league's next great safeties. With only interim coaches to close out the remaining three games of the season, the Bucs should have smooth sailing into the Wild Card round.
13.		Dolphins	--	8-5	There are no consolation prizes in the NFL, but a single score loss to the best team in the league while the backup waterboy is lining up in the slot is about as close to a one as you'll ever get. While he was able to pull off the win, even Patrick Mahomes couldn't keep this ball-hawking defense from getting a hold of the ball, often. And at some point, if people don't start talking about Xavien Howard in the DPOY conversation, he's just going to go intercept the damned award himself. Hopefully, the long, long list of injured Dolphins get well soon.
14.		Cardinals	+1	7-6	A monster day from Haason Reddick and the defense finally put the Cardinals back on the winning track. Breaking a franchise record with 5 sacks was one thing, but getting all the turnovers was huge. Hopefully the offense feeds off of it and has a good week in preparing for a big game with Philly that has huge playoff implications. It will take a complete team effort to beat Philly with Jalen Hurts starting fresh of a win against the Saints.
15.		Raiders	-1	7-6	The Raiders looked really bad against the Colts, just like they have for the better part of the last 6 weeks. Luckily Gruden finally made the call to fire Pauly G, something fans have been calling for for the past 2 seasons. Only time will tell if it's too little, too late. Every game from here on out is a must win if the Raiders want to make the playoffs.
16.		Washington FT	+3	6-7	Washington is finding ways to win instead of finding ways to lose. The offense was not able to score a TD so the defense went ahead and spotted them 14 points. Chase Young notches his first TD and continues to prove his worth as the 2nd overall pick as a game wrecker.
17.		Vikings	--	6-7	Dalvin Cook became the first back to rush for over 100 yards against the Bucs in over 20 games, but the Vikings were unable to convert long drives into points as Dan Bailey went 0/4 on field goals and extra points. Couple that with some questionable officiating, the Vikings' banged up front seven generating zero pressure on Tom Brady and plenty of self-inflicted wounds and it all adds up to a real tough loss that knocks the Vikings down from wild card favorites to playoff long shots.
18.		Bears	+5	6-7	The Bears finally snapped their six-game losing streak by rolling over the Texans without much difficulty. Trubisky attempted one throw longer than 20 yards.
19.		Patriots	-3	6-7	Los Angeles, is a land of contrasts - In a span of four days the Patriots' hopes for a postseason were revived and then unceremoniously squashed. Run Defense, Offensive Line, Cam and the Receivers, There just are too many holes to cover up with week to week coaching, this team needs some reworking over the offseason. The Pats end the season with the division as always, lets hope to fuck someone’s season or seeding up. And also the Jets.
20.		49ers	-2	5-8	The 49ers defense did their job, holding the Washington offense to a total of 9 points, but the offense had two takeaways brought back for touchdowns and could not recover. The team looks to right the ship this week against the Cowboys.
21.		Broncos	+5	5-8	Drew Lock put up the third-highest passer rating in team history — behind a couple guys you may know. In the battle of 4-8's, the Broncos somehow managed to not blow a sizeable fourth-quarter lead and emerge victorious. Winning the game but losing The Hunt for a Better Draft Pick. Will the team remain in purgatory? Stay tuned.
22.		Giants	-2	5-8	It’s a real joy to watch the rest of the teams in the up-for-grabs NFC East secure wins, with one being against a top-5 team, all while watching your team play so poorly they start setting franchise records. At least we can say the hype was fun while it lasted, right?
23.		Falcons	-1	4-9	Outplayed by a team whose most impressive win is a tossup between the Bengals, Jaguars, and Jets? Check. Outcoached by special teams ace Anthony Lynn? Check. Ten point lead blown, two interceptions with under five minutes left, double check. Good thing age is just a number for the 32nd youngest team in the league.
24.		Panthers	-3	4-9	I'm not sure where the Panthers go from here. Coach Rhule has said that he isn't going to do the team and fans a disservice by beginning to evaluate players, which means that we're going to see more of Teddy Bridgewater (who is 0-7 in one score games this season) crumble at the end of the game. Playing at Lambeau in primetime in December is one of the hardest things a team can do, and it's not going to be an easy test for the Panthers, who so far have shown that they can't win close games, nor can they defend the pass (23rd in passing defense). It's going to be tough sledding, but hopefully Jeremy Chinn can continue his torrid pace and run his way into DROY.
25.		Eagles	+3	4-8-1	Jalen Hurts delivered the spark the Eagles needed to upset the Saints and spread 'quarterback controversy' all over the city of brotherly love. While the season remains a disappointment, the dual running threat of Hurts and Sanders could be interesting to watch going forward, and the NFC Least remains wide-open with 2 divisional games left on the 2020 menu.
26.		Lions	-1	5-8	Even with a loss, Interim HC Darrell Bevell showed that his Lions are here to compete. This game was never out of hands, and the Lions kept it close the entire time. There are still plenty of woes on Defense, but the Offense continued to ball out as expected. With two TD's coming from the run game (Swift and Kerryon), there is already something to look forward to next year. Lately the team has been able to trust the run on short yardage and redzone carries and it has helped the team with consistency in the red zone. Unfortunately, Aaron Rodgers is a QB that can carve up a weak secondary... so that didn't go great. There's around a 1% chance of the Lions getting a playoff spot, not unheard of, but it'll be tough if Stafford's injury progresses and we lose him for the season. #DefendTheDen
27.		Chargers	--	4-9	First of all, props to Falcons Twitter for this gem before the game, and it played out exactly as expected. Both teams did their best to try giving it away at the end, but the Chargers ended up on the winning side this time around. The Chargers had their hiccups again but there were improvements across the board; Justin Herbert's 81.8% completion percentage is his highest of the season, the defense came away with 3 INTs, and special teams probably had their best day. The Chargers get a short week before a Thursday Night tilt in Las Vegas.
28.		Texans	-4	4-9	The Texans are lucky that Paxton is the Texas AG, otherwise they would have had the biggest blowout loss in the state this past week.
29.		Cowboys	--	4-9	The Red Rifle won his revenge game, the defense forced multiple turnovers, and the Bengals were held to 3.4 yards per carry. All that, and the Cowboys still come out of the week with a top 5 draft pick. Honestly, Sunday couldn't have gone better. Now, the only question is whether this was the team turning the corner and the beginning of a strong finish to the season, or this was just a perfect moment of the Cowboys finding a shittier team with serious injuries issues and just doing what should happen in that scenario.
30.		Bengals	--	2-10-1	Giovani Bernard hadn't fumbled since 2013 before his 1st quarter fumble on Sunday. So what does he get for his troubles? A spot on the bench thanks to Zac Taylor. Giovani was one of the only veterans who spoke out in behalf of Taylor and the current coaches when multiple articles were released with "sources" saying that Taylor had lost the locker room last month. You have to question the benching for multiple reasons as the directionless Bengals continue to flounder to blowout losses. Just another reason why this should be Zac Taylor's last season as head coach in Cincinnati.
31.		Jaguars	--	1-12	This one felt more as expected. Perhaps it was in former GM Dave Caldwell's plans— no, wait, hear me out. Adjusting tinfoil hat; Based on the moves taken this offseason to seemingly dump talent from the Jaguars in attempt to amass more draft picks, perhaps the former front office of the Jaguars were banking on this season not being played, due to pandemic reasons. Sure, this may sound farfetched, but I'd like to hear a more reasonable explanation for fielding such a disaster as this team, this season.
32.		Jets	--	0-13	The Jets have now scored on 7 consecutive opening drives, the longest streak in the NFL. After climbing to an early 3-0 lead, I watched Peter Sawkins make an excellent cranachan custard slice on The Great British Bake Off.

Before the season, I posted "My Take on the 2021 NFL QB Class". With the exception of D'Eriq King and Purdy, my class is fairly similar to what it was earlier in the season. Obviously, Zach Wilson was the big mover. COVID did impact this QB class as it did for everything in sports. Here is my updated list:
QB1 :
Trevor Lawrence – Top QB in the draft. Once in a generation prospect even if his QB skills aren’t exactly there with Andrew Luck, he’s better at the spread than Luck as a pro-style QB.
Status – Very Polished, could use more polish as a pro-style QB
Style of QB – Balanced QB
System – Spread (Elite) The greatest spread QB prospect of all time.
Floor: Very good NFL QB who’s a top 12-15 QB especially if used in the spread, could be higher.
Ceiling: The best player in the NFL
Player Comparison – John Elway
Impact Comparison – Not sure we have seen someone as good as Trevor as a spread QB who is going to a spread system like Urban Meyer. Obviously, Kyler and Kliff Kingsbury was a great marriage but T. Law is several tiers better at the spread than Murray. Some will say Herbert but Trevor is a much better spread QB than Herbert. Trevor makes others around him better. Herbert needs to have a strong supporting cast. Trevor has some Deshaun Watson in him.
Tier – All-Pro Prospect
I am about going to breakdown any of these prospects to a T. I felt a lot of guys have done that already and have pretty good lists of their strengths and weaknesses. While Trevor has a similar floor to Fields, his potential is astronomical. He and Lance have the highest ceiling in this draft. If this were another sport like Basketball, I would compare Trevor to Luka Doncic.
Favorite High-End Play from Trevor: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WiGP_wd8Z5c
QB2:
Trey Lance– Most talented and gifted QB in this draft. Elite athleticism, elite strength for the position, very good arm, elite work ethic, elite Football IQ, and Football instincts, with pre-snap abilities as an RS Freshman. It helps he’s also a pro-style QB which matters in the NFL.
Status – Needs polish, Boom or Bust prospect
Style of QB – Running QB
System – West Coast QB
Floor: Below Average QB who could be solid (top 20-25 QB) if the personnel around him is very good.
Ceiling: All-Pro QB who is an elite football player while being a very good QB
Player Comparison – Steve McNair
Impact Comparison – Josh Allen
Tier – Pro Bowl Prospect
He has a lot of McNair qualities and throws and moves a lot like McNair. Faster than McNair plays like a 4.5 guy. What is special about Lance is he is an elite all-around athlete. He is not just a great athlete out of the pocket, he is a great athlete in the pocket. He also showcases a very good mental processing speed. They make things simple for Lance with mirrors but considering he was an RS Freshman in all the tape I watched, I really don’t have as much of a problem with it.
I liked his accuracy overall. I really did not have much of an issue with it as I rewatched the tape. Experience is probably the biggest thing I want to see him add more of. He's a freak athlete, extremely talented QB, what if he is what Pat Mahomes is to Brett Favre for him/McNair. His impact comparison is Allen because he's one of the most naturally gifted and talented physically strong players I've seen as I have been doing this.
QB3a:
Justin Fields– Elite Mobile QB prospect and the best mobile QB I have ever seen. Excellent athleticism, elite strength for the position, very good arm, excellent accuracy, elite work ethic, scheme versatile, and knows when to run or pass effortlessly. PFF rated him an elite QB every season he has played.
Status – The most polished QB in the draft.
Style of QB – Mobile QB
System – Pro-Style QB, scheme versatile, can also play pro-style at a high level.
Floor: Good QB, top 20 QB day 1.
Ceiling: Multiple time Pro Bowler who can win you a lot of games with a good team surrounding him.
Player Comparison – Donovan McNabb
Impact Comparison – Matt Ryan
Tier – Very good Prospect
Reminds me of Matt Ryan a lot. Meaning that they are extremely polished as prospects and ready on day 1 but they have a good number of flaws that are not as workable as their fans want you to believe and I wonder if their ceiling really is that high. I felt Ryan’s was not and was proven correct. I feel the same about Fields, but I could be proven wrong.
Ryan as a prospect was an elite game manager prospect which is like Fields who is an elite mobile QB prospect. His playing style reminds me a lot of McNabb. I hate the Watson comparison; Watson is a gamer who is a freakish playmaker. Fields usually take what the defense gives him. He is a lot more like McNabb.
Mobile QB always have a much higher risk of injuries due to their style of play but their style of play leads to winning with less and winning big with more but they don’t have the same longevity as balanced and non-mobile QBs.
QB3b:
Zach Wilson– Similar to Joe Burrow, he had a freakishly elite year before he entered the NFL while previous years were decent but nothing to write about for an NFL QB Prospect. What I love about Wilson is many of the things I loved about Burrow. Elite accuracy. Can throw off-platform. Throws off many different arm angles. Mobile. Good football IQ. The issue where I differ between him and Burrow who I felt was a legit All-Pro prospect with a very high floor is decision making. I do like his arm strength more than Burrow. I really was not a fan of Wilson’s decision making and I feel, he needs a lot of development at it if it can be fixed at all. PFF rated him a 95.4 which is insanely high considering his personnel.
Status – Very polished
Style of QB – Balanced QB
System – Spread QB
Floor: Decent QB, should be top 20-25 QB as a rookie and better depending on the personnel.
Ceiling: Multiple time Pro Bowler who can win you a lot of games with a good team surrounding him. Players will really be able to put up excellent stats with him at QB when he reaches his comfort zone.
Player Comparison – Joe Burrow
Impact Comparison – Tony Romo
Tier – Very good Prospect
Reminds me of Tony Romo. Talented. Accurate. Questionable decision making. Thinks he is more athletic than he is. Will likely have a lot of injuries due to his decision making. Overall, he’s a great fit for the modern game with the WR’s, TE’s, and schemes we have in today’s NFL.
QB5:
Mac Jones – Had one of the best seasons in college football history. Tremendous pocket QB ability. Elite ball placement on short to intermediate throws. Gives his WRs a shot to make the play. Throws all his players in stride when it is not a deep ball. He likes to sling the rock and knows how to mix run and pass. His athletic ability is not awful, he reminds me of Nick Mullens athletically. Best Football IQ in this draft for a QB, he is a very good decision-maker. Tremendous foot speed within the pocket. The best in the class and easily the best I have seen in a while for a QB prospect.
His arm strength is a major issue and considering the timing of today’s pocket, he needs to be more athletic too. Also, his weapons are better than the players he will likely play with at the next level. He is clearly the best game managing QB I have seen in a while but most of these guys if not all of them have been bad or bust recently. Jared Goff is the last elite game managing prospect, and he is hurting his team more than helping them these days. Mac is a very good game manager prospect.
Status – Very polished
Style of QB – Game Manager
System – West Coast QB
Floor: Below average QB, should be back up tier QB as a rookie.
Ceiling: Could be a decent QB long term. Depending on the system, coaching, and personnel, could be the biggest breakout in this class.
Player Comparison – Jake Fromm
Impact Comparison – Phillip Rivers
Tier – Good Prospect
Clearly a 1st round QB to me. Best pocket passer in the draft. Will be a game manager for a while and hopes that he can develop into a good QB. He reminds me of a lot of Fromm but he is superior in many key areas. The hope is that he eventually develops into a Phillip Rivers reliable Pro Bowl type of QB considering his arm strength questions. His most impressive trait for me is his foot speed within the pocket. He will remind some people of Tom Brady. Watching early Brady, I can see the comparisons but man, Brady needed A LOT to go right for him to be an elite QB. Coaching, system, scheme, personnel, how you are used. You can go to the wrong team and he is a rich man’s Nate Peterman being a career backup. In today’s NFL, getting everything to go right usually does not happen so do not expect it to happen. If there is a Pat Mahomes or Lamar Jackson in this class (2nd or 3rd round grade QB who became a superstar), Mac Jones is it for me.
QB6:
Kyle Trask – A Pocket Passer. We do not get many of these a lot these days. Kyle is excellent at the line. The pre-snap grade is very good. He knows how to get the ball to his playmakers. He has an excellent feel for the game. He has very good size. He is a very good Pocket Passer QB prospect. Guys like him do well in the NFL because running an offense and being productive is VERY hard to find and his arm is strong enough.
Status – Very polished
Style of QB – Pocket Passer
System – Spread QB
Floor: Average QB, should be a top tier backup QB as a rookie. Top 30-35 QB
Ceiling: Should be a decent QB long term with the potential to be a long-term starter
Player Comparison – Dwayne Haskins
Impact Comparison – Matt Hasselbeck
Tier – Good Prospect
While he is not a 1st rounder to me. He is a lot less risky than Jones or Lance. Why? He going to run the offense the way the coaches draw it up to be run like. He has the size. He has the arm. It would not surprise me if he appealed to teams who want to be run first and defensive-minded. His potential is not high, but it is not bad either. Do not be surprised if Trask has more success than Wilson long term. It is hard to see him have more success than Fields or T-Law. Do not be shocked if he had more short-term success than Lance.
QB7:
Jamie Newman – An mobile QB prospect who is a deep ball threat. Newman reminds me of Daunte Culpepper as a prospect. I wish we would have seen him this year but the Monken system was not really a fit for Newman’s style of play.
Status – Needs polish
Style of QB – Mobile QB
System – Pro-Style QB
Floor: Below average QB, backup at best.
Ceiling: A top 20 QB with a chance a major success with the right personnel.
Player Comparison – Daunte Culpepper
Impact Comparison – Daunte Culpepper
Tier – Good Prospect
While he is not a 1st rounder to me. He has one of the higher ceilings in the draft. If there is a QB you want to bet on the long term and you have the right system, Newman makes a lot of sense. Should appeal to teams like Pitt who want big plays and the running game to win games.
The rest are not worth me grading. Mond is a 4th to 5th rounder for me. He is a poor man’s Kaepernick. Ellinger is even worse. Ian Book, Dustin Crum, and Davis Mills are interesting, and I will be tracking them at the combine and further.

1. Trevor - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WiGP_wd8Z5c
2. Trey - https://youtu.be/4oP3O1C3PUc
3. Justin and Zach - https://youtu.be/afu8ul3RoQ0 and https://youtu.be/T36Gk6czPio
4. –
5. Mac - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8W9a_Z9hkvY
6. Kyle - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6tcDrgjZ_h4
7. Newman - https://youtu.be/zZhi_bLhGa0
8. Mond - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rkdKxCELcQU
9. Crum - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nByCGzbjJQ
10. Book - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sP5w-R3mN8

Original Thread:
https://www.reddit.com/NFL_Draft/comments/izkhe5/my_take_on_the_2021_nfl_qb_class/

Yesterday I commented on how you had a 1.43% chance of starting for a domestic Icelandic side if you were a male aged 15-39 using quickmaths^TM .
It got me thinking about other small nations and the likelihood of starting for a team in your own national league if you’re a man of playing age.

The Assumptions

To get a rough estimate, I need to make several sweeping generalisations.
Assumption 1) It’s just men.
Despite exceptions like Yuki Nagasato and Ellen Fokkema, I’ll calculate solely from the amount of men in a nation that are between 15-39.
Assumption 2) It’s every man.
I don’t care if you hate football, if you’ve got a condition preventing you from playing football, or if you’re registered as a citizen of your country but live elsewhere, you’re getting included. Likewise, this means those who live in one nation but are a citizen of another won’t be included.
Assumption 3) Starting XIs can only be comprised of 15-39 year olds.
I know many 40+ year old players will be out there, but this demographic would match the general career of top footballers. I’ll use population pyramids to get the amount of men in this demographic. Pyramids tend to move in 5 year increments so 15-39 is the most fair range I can think of.
Assumption 4) All teams are independent from each other.
Inaccurate I know, but if I was calculating for Spain, I’d be counting Barcelona and Barcelona B as two separate clubs. If there is an easy way to separate the reserve teams from the rest, I won't include them (as you’ll see, I’m quite loose with this assumption).

Method

Find out how many men aged 15-39 are in a country. Divide that by the number of teams in their domestic league. Divide that figure by 11. 1 Divided by this answer and multiplied by 100 will give the % chance of a random male aged 15-39 being in the starting 11 for a team any given matchday.
Formula:
M/T=X
X/11=Y
1/Y=Z
Z x 100 = % chance.
(M = men, T = teams)

Limitations

Lots. I’m not trying to be too serious here. As I’ve said, I’m not factoring in people who can’t play, people who have moved out of the country, players who have come in from a different country etc…
Recordkeeping at lower league levels is hard so even the amount of clubs in a league system is a bit shoddy. Some of the population pyramids are marked poorly so I’ll have to guesstimate as best as I can.

Leagues to look at

These are the 11 domestic leagues I’ll look at. Each of these countries/territories are FIFA recognised. Why these 11? They were all on the lower end of FIFA rankings and population number.

• Andorra
  
• Faroe Islands
  
• Gibraltar
  
• Liechtenstein
  
• Luxembourg
  
• Monserrat
  
• New Caledonia
  
• San Marino
  
• St.Kitts and Nevis
  
• Tahiti
  
• Turks and Caicos Islands
  

So, in order from lower to higher chance…

New Caledonia

Linguistically, New Caledonia is almost identical to Nova Scotia. Climatewise, they’re complete (but not polar) opposites. New Caledonia is neither an overseas region nor an overseas collectivity of France but lies in its own legislative niche in the southwest Pacific Ocean. The 70s was their golden age, with a win over New Zealand and scoring 3 against Bulgaria (only to concede 5). More recently they drew 1-1 against Estonia in 2017.
Their top division contains 12 teams, with a secondary division which contains up to 13 teams in any given season.
A 2019 population pyramid gives me an M number of 54032.
M = 54032 T = 25
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 0.51%.
My favourite domestic team: AS Magenta. They got to the Oceania Champions League Final in 2005, losing to Sydney FC.

Turks and Caicos Islands

A British overseas territory in the Caribbean, the wonderfully named Cockburn Town is it’s capital (pronounced cohw-burn like it’s Edinburgh Street counterpart). Horatio Nelson suffered a rare defeat of the coast of the islands in the 1780s and John Glenn landed near the islands in 1962 after his first spaceflight. Their national team hasn’t achieved much with only one World Cup qualifying win (which they lost on aggregate in the return leg).
Their domestic league has had up to 18 teams in the past, but last season only had 6 in their premier division. This number is fluid so the T number will be between 6-18.
A 2018 population pyramid brought the M number to c.12,200
M = 12200 T = 6-18
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 0.54-1.62%
My favourite domestic team: If you think Red Bull is bad for corporate branding, 2-time league champions KPMG United FC were a strong team in the mid 2000s. In 2006 they changed their name, and won another league title under the new name PWC Athletic.

Tahiti

Tahiti is the largest island in French Polynesia, but FIFA recognises it as a separate footballing nation. Lyle Lanley famously swindled the town of Springfield and fled toward Tahiti. Before he got there however, he was attacked by the inhabitants of North Haverbrook. Tahiti beat the Cook Islands 30-0 in 1971. You might remember Tahiti from the 2013 confederations cup where they played Spain, Uruguay, and Nigeria. They scored 1 and conceded 24 giving them the worst GD of any national team in any major competition.
There are 2 tiers to the Tahiti domestic league, these contain 32 clubs (+14 reserve teams that I won’t count).
A population pyramid for Tahiti is impossible to find, as it is a subregion of French Polynesia. Nevertheless, you can be from any of the other islands and still represent Tahiti. This calculation from a 2020 population pyramid gives me an M number of 52931
M = 52931 T = 32
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 0.67%
My favourite domestic team: It is a tie between AS Excelsior and AS Dragon. Combining them would give the league a mythical allure.

Luxembourg

Luxembourg have been improving rapidly internationally. They beat Hungary in 2017 and they drew 0-0 with France less than a year before France became world champions. Real glory was bestowed upon them in 1980 they reached the semi-finals of the Indonesian Marah Halim Cup where they eventually lost to a Burmese XI.
Luxembourg have 5 tiers in their domestic league. These 5 tiers are home to a massive 104 teams.
A 2019 population pyramid shows Luxembourg having 109,701 males in the relevant age bracket. I clearly underestimated Luxembourg’s population.
M = 109,701 T = 104
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 1.04%
My favourite domestic team: FC Yellow Boys Weiler-la-Tour. What a name. 500pax capacity stadium. They play in the 2nd division which is also known as The Division of Honour. Their primary rivalry is with FC Blue Boys Muhlenbach and FC Red Boys Aspelt with a secondary rivalry against FC Green Boys 77 Harlange-Tarchamps.

Liechtenstein

One of the few double-landlocked countries in the world (they are landlocked as are their bordering countries), Liechtenstein squeezes in between Switzerland and Austria. Their national side signalled the beginning of the end of Jack Charlton’s Irish tenure when they held Ireland to a 0-0 draw in 1995. Ireland went on to get 3 points from a possible 12 and missed out on Euro 96. In 2011 it took until the 97th minute for Scotland to beat Liechtenstein.
The 7 football teams that are based in Liechtenstein all play in the Swiss domestic league. This stretches from FC Vaduz in the top division, to FC Schaan who play in the 8th tier.
The most recent population pyramid I could find was from 2015. No worries. I’ll calculate the M number from the 10-34 age range here instead of the 15-39. In this way it is a slightly more accurate, but still really flawed figure. This number comes to a suspiciously specific 5473
M = 5473 T = 7
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 1.41%
My favourite domestic team: FC Vaduz. I’ve been to Vaduz. It was hot and expensive. While there, I caught a glimpse of Pak Kwang-Ryong, their star striker who has been the North Korean footballer of the year in 2013. Previously he scored against Spurs in 2011.

St.Kitts and Nevis

Saint Kitts and Nevis is a dual island nation in the Caribbean. Neil deGrasse Tyson takes his middle name from his Nevis born grandmother. Founding father of the USA, Alexander Hamilton, was also born on Nevis. As for St Kitts, Marcus Rashford has a Kittitian grandmother. St Kitts and Nevis got to within one round of qualifying for the 2006 World Cup and are the only Caribbean side to beat a European team, when they defeated Andorra in 2015.
The Saint Kitts and Nevis domestic league is split across two tiers and I can find evidence of 14 teams.
A 2018 population pyramid gives me a rough M number of 9,700.
M = 9700 T = 14
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 1.59%
My favourite domestic team: Village Superstars FC. The 7 times league champions have earned their title.

Andorra

Nestled in the Pyrenees, the Andorran national side are the perennial whipping boys of every European and World Cup qualifying cycle. In 2001 they took the lead against Ireland (but conceded 2 in the next two minutes). Albania and Hungary are among the teams that have lost to Andorra previously.
Domestically, clubs play in the Primera and Segona Divisió. I found many defunct clubs but from what I can see, there are currently 18 active clubs in Andorra
The most recent population pyramid I could find was from 2018. Using this data, I calculated that there are c.11,900 males aged 15-39 in Andorra.
M = 11900 T = 18
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 1.66%
My favourite domestic team: FC Andorra. The biggest side. Based in the capital. Named after the country but have never played in the domestic league. They play in Spain. They weren’t included in the calculation.

Faroe Islands

The Faroe Islands did the double over Greece in Euro 2016 qualifying. They’ve also beaten Iceland and Lithuania in the past. The beautiful rugged North Atlantic archipelago voted for independence in 1946 but this result was annulled by the Danes. 2 years later they were granted extensive home rule.
Like Andorra, there are 18 official clubs (There are 4 divisions in Andorra with the bottom ones being exclusively populated by reserve teams. I’ve only counted non-reserve teams in brazen defiance of my 4th assumption).
Again, the most recent population pyramid was from 2018. I found c.8800 15-39 year old males.
M = 8800 T = 18
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 2.25%
My favourite domestic team: B36 Tórshavn. A great run saw them reach the 3rd qualifying round of the Europa League this season, eventually losing out to CSKA Sofia

Gibraltar

Gibraltar has been a FIFA member since 2016. They’ve beaten Armenia, Latvia, Liechtenstein, and San Marino since becoming FIFA members. Their 2 tier national league is currently home to 17 clubs (2 recently disbanded).
Their 2018 population pyramid showed roughly 5600 eligible males living in Gibraltar.
M = 5600 T = 17
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 3.34%
My favourite domestic team: Lincoln Red Imps. They went 1,959 days unbeaten in the domestic league from 2009-2014. Followed up in 2016 with a win over Celtic. Not content with only one Old Firm scalp, they played Rangers this season but got smashed 5-0.

San Marino

One of two states completely enveloped by Italy, San Marino will be remembered for their 1993 match against England when they scored after 8.3 seconds and then went on to concede 7. On the other end of the 90 minutes, they scored an 87th minute equaliser against Ireland only to concede again in the 95th minute in 2007. Turkey, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Gibraltar, and Estonia are the only teams to have ever dropped points against San Marino. A 1-0 win over Liechtenstein in a 2004 friendly remains their only win to date.
The league system in San Marino comprises of 15 teams in two conferences (there is no relegation/promotion). The Sammarinese league is rated 55/55 regarding UEFA Coefficients.
I found a 2016 population pyramid, so like Liechtenstein, I shifted the data to 10-34 year olds for this M number. The number here was c.4800
M = 4800 T = 15
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 3.44% chance
My favourite domestic team: A.S. San Giovanni. The only team from San Marino that has never won anything domestically. They have a downright wacky poorly translated history on Wikipedia which only endeared them to me more.

Monserrat

A volcanic British Overseas Territory in the Caribbean. Due to huge eruptions that started in 1995, more than half of the island is uninhabitable. Many indentured Irish servants were brought to Monserrat which has left a noticeable impression on the demographics of the island. Riley, O'Brien, Farrell, Ryan, and Meade are some of the more prominent surnames on Monserrat. The 'Black Irish' of Monserrat is something that has often been reported on.
Monserrat routinely featured at the foot of the FIFA rankings for many years. On the day of the 2002 World Cup Final, Monserrat played Bhutan in what was called ‘The Other World Cup Final’ as it was between the two bottom ranked sides. Bhutan won 4-0 which was their first ever international win.
Monserrat has had an unstable league system due to constant volcanic eruptions. Teams come and go quite frequently. There are at least 5 times and at most 12, so the T number will be 5-12
With a tiny population, the Monserrat M number is only 1240.
M = 1240 T = 5-12
Chances of starting for a domestic team: 4.44%-9.68%
My favourite domestic team: Oh the Montserratian team names are amazing. Montserrat Volcano Observatory Tremors or the Seven Day Adventists Trendsetters would be my top picks.

Bonus

The Vatican City

The not FIFA recognised, home to so many skewed per capita records, I thought I’d include the Vatican just out of curiosity.
The Vatican actually has an internal domestic league, The Vatican City Championship, with 8 teams. The teams are comprised between the staff of the police, the newspapers, the library, and other administrative bodies. The pope is yet to line up for any of the sides. The league also has a cup competition, The Vatican Supercoppa
The only population pyramid I found was poor and unsourced. As there are minimal women living in the Vatican, It’s safe to assume almost all of the 825 residents are male. As it’s difficult to find age breakdowns, I’ll include every person living in the Vatican as my M number.
M = 825 T = 8
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 10.70%
TL;DR

Domestic League	% chance
New Caledonia	0.51
Turks and Caicos Islands	0.54-1.62
Tahiti	0.67
Luxembourg	1.04
Liechtenstein	1.41
St.Kitts and Nevis	1.59
Andorra	1.66
Faroe Islands	2.25
Gibraltar	3.34
San Marino	3.44
Monserrat	4.44-9.68
The Vatican1	10.70

¹ Not FIFA recognized.

Conclusion

Want your son to have the best chance of being in a starting XI? You better move to Monserrat. If you’re European and don’t want to move too far maybe San Marino is your best bet.
Of course if you were just looking to get into a matchday squad,you could roughly double the percentage.
There are around 200 countries in the world and I only looked at 5% of them. I’m sure there are other ones with better ratios out there but quite frankly, I’m too lazy.
Thanks for reading!
Sources:
Population pyramids:
https://www.populationpyramid.net/
https://www.theodora.com/
Club numbers:
www.wikipedia.org for general info and then the citations on wikipedia for a more detailed look.
https://int.soccerway.com/
www.FIFA.com

Trades:
Broncos trade 2021 RD1#12, 2021 RD4 #105 and 2022 RD1 for Cowboys 2021 RD1#4
Panthers trade 2021 RD1#7 and 2021 RD4 #102 and 2022 RD4 for Chargers 2021 RD1#5
Jaguars Trade 2021 Rd1#25 and 2021 RD3#66 for Raiders 2021 RD1#25
The 49ers trade 2021 RD2 #47, 2022 4th and Jimmy Garapolo for Patriots 2021 RD2 #46 and 2022 RD6
Steelers Trade 2021 RD2#64, 2021 RD4#128 and 2021 RD7#239 for Seahawks 2021 RD2#58
Football Team trades 2021 RD3 #75 and 2021 RD4 #106 for Seahawks 2021 RD2 #64
Seahawks Trade 2021 RD4 #122 and 2022 RD4 Via Jets for Packers 2021 RD3 #93
Steelers trade 2021 Rd3 #96 and Conditional 2022 Pick (2nd or 3rd) For Jets QB Sam Darnold
1. *Jets*- Trevor Lawrence-QB-Clemson
Sometimes you just don’t need to overthink it. Darnold’s failure in the Garden State wasn’t his own fault but you don’t pass on free, generational QBs like Lawrence. While you can try to get cute and make cases for Fields, Lance or Wilson, you really shouldn’t, especially with the 2021 scheme still TBD. Lawrence has the arm talent, IQ, athleticism, size and character to fit well in any scheme and any coaching staff. His only weakness I see is a reckless streak to force balls to his first option through tight windows. IMO this is simply a result of being more talented than the competition, throwing to receivers more talented than the opposition and having better scheming than the opposition. It should go away with NFL reps. Slam dunk pick. It’s time to bring sunshine to the garden state.
2. *Jaguars*- Justin Fields-QB-Ohio St
For as poor as their record is, the Jags actually have some pretty good pieces to build around. This has to be one of the youngest teams in football and with Coughlin gone, maybe they can actually start bringing in free agents and keeping stars in house. James Robinson, Laviska Shenualt, DJ Chark and a surprisingly good interior O-line lead by a potential all-pro in Brandon Linder give the offense a good baseline to build around. Give Justin Fields some good protection, an emerging young RB who can catch passes, an OC who can scheme first reads into space and a playmaking receiving group and we have a good chance to do something. For my money, Fields is the most accurate QB in the class and arguably the best at grasping route-tree concepts. Like Lawrence, he struggles to come off of his first read at times and for very similar reasons, though in his case it leads to less yolo balls and more tucking and running while second reads run free. He will need reps to come off of this, but in a quick-hitting system with playmakers, he could really hit the ground running.
3. *Bengals*- Penei Sewell-OT-Oregon
This pick is the easiest in the entire draft. Best LT I’ve personally scouted coming out to a team that needs it more than any other team, with an injured 1-1 QB who looked every bit the part in his rookie year. If it were any more obvious, Avril Lavigne would write a song about it.
4. *Broncos Via Cowboys*- Zach Wilson-QB-BYU
Either John Elway’s good will in Denver will be good enough to get him one last shot at drafting his QB, or a new regime will come in and want to draft their own QB. Either way, a new QB is coming, which is exciting given that they actually have some really good pieces on offense. Going with the idea that Elway remains, I can see Elway falling in love with either guy, likely seeing more of himself in Wilson, but Lance likely blowing him away in interviews and more importantly being slightly taller. In the end, while I have Lance rated higher, I think Elway will want to go the perceived safer route in Wilson, who is still a high ceiling player in his own right and has experience playing at high altitudes for BYU. Either way, I think Denver trading into the top 5 for a QB is one of the biggest locks of the draft. Dallas has a plethora of needs, but a healthy Dak Prescott has looked like a top 5 QB in recent years and is simply too good to walk away from. Since I have CB as their top need and Sewell off of the board, it makes sense for them to grab draft capital and still likely land a top 2-3 CB.
5. *Panthers Via Chargers*- Trey Lance-QB-NDSU
With Wilson off of the board, the Panthers pay a slight price to flip with the Chargers and ensure they get their QB. While I have Lance rated higher than Wilson for most teams, I actually slightly prefer Wilson in Carolina if they got their choice, but Lance is far too good to pass on. While Brady may not be able to run his full concept year one with Lance, Teddy’s still tentative nature has held back the offense at times and still lead to too many turnover worthy plays. They will need to slow down the game a bit for Lance if he starts from day one, but they have the pieces to do so. Lance will add a game-breaking dynamic to open up the entire field with his arm, while taking pressure off of CMC and demanding QB spies. This should really open things up for Brady to slowly unleash Lance. They have the pieces to have one of the best offenses in football (and the coaching) if this hits. With so many targets schemed into space and a heavy dose of CMC to make defenses respect the run, Lance’s potential accuracy issues will be muted and he has the ability to drive the ball in ways that help receivers functionally be more open than with a touch passer. They are also perfectly situated to start a cheap Teddy until Lance is ready with a long term minded coaching staff and ownership. Really like this fit and team.
6. *Eagles*- Caleb Farley-CB-Virginia Tech
I could see a case for the Eagles going after Chase here, but with how poor the Eagles secondary has been this year outside of an aging Darius Slay, I can’t see them passing on a talent like Farley. Jim Schwartz likes to put a ton of pressure on his secondary and Maddox/NRC simply don’t have the size or physicality to deal with what’s asked of them. IMO Farley has the highest ceiling of any CB i’ve scouted since Ramsey and similarly has the rare combo of size, speed and football IQ to match up with any receiver or QB in the game. The former QB still knows how to think like a CB and has the ball skills that made him highly recruited as a WR before he transitioned to CB. Farley checks every physical box, every mental box, every playmaking box and is said to have a home run character. If i’m searching for an issue, he can take an occasional miss-step in zone, but Schwartz is famously averse to soft zone. Farley has a bit of an injury history and is still fairly new to the position, but he has all-pro potential, a high floor and is a much needed good fit for this Eagles secondary. They can’t afford to pass on him.
7. *Chargers Via Panthers*- Samuel Cosmi-OT-Texas
The Chargers traded back, acquiring two fourths to make stomaching reaching for a tackle a bit easier. Still they have to do it. They look to have a franchise QB and play-action can only mask so much. The line is simply terrible. Per PFF, the Chargers line ranks as follows: tackles Sam Tevi and Brian Bulaga (71st and 56th out of 78 with Pipkins ranked 77th getting snaps), Trai Turner and Forrest Lamp (81st and 74th of 83) at guard and Dan Feeney (35th of 36) at center. Oof. The only borderline passable starter is a Bulaga at RT who will be 32 next year. With a QB who has wheels and big money tied to a fleet footed Ekeler, I think adding lateral mobility and athleticism to the line is a must. Cosmi isn’t a finished product technically or physically but he has the frame to add good weight while maintaining plus athleticism at the blind side and is used to playing with a mobile QB who will make life tougher on him. He rarely fully loses reps and should provide an immediate upgrade from Tevi, while having an extremely high ceiling. It’s time to change the identity of that line and lean into the play action game that is keeping the offense functional, even if I have Darrishaw rated slightly higher, I prefer this fit.
8. *Football Team*- Ja’Marr Chase-WR-LSU
People seem to be forgetting how good Ja’Marr Chase is after a year off. Justin Jefferson has been one of the best receivers in the entire NFL his rookie year, Terrace Marshall is a borderline round one guy, CEH was a first round pick and yet the most impressive skill player on that 2019 LSU team was Chase. While the Football Team clearly doesn’t have a long term solution at QB, the top 4 guys are gone and I’m not sure they have the skill players or line for a new QB to ever be successful anyways. When your receivers 2-5 are Steven Sims, Cam Sims, Dontrell Inman and Isaiah Wright, you don’t pass on a Ja’Marr Chase. Easily the worst 2-5 in the NFL. Logan Thomas isn’t a top 30 TE either. There are some pieces in DC. McLaurin is a stud and Gibson is everything I hoped he would be. The line has some good pieces, but have two weak links in Martin and Christian that need to be replaced before it can become functional. With a year left on Smith’s deal and 50 mil in cap space, the FT can afford to bring back Scherff, upgrade from Martin and take a swing on a mid round QB. Worst case scenario they go all in on a 2021 QB but actually have the pieces in place for him to hit the ground running.
9. *Lions*- DeVonta Smith-WR-Alabama
The Lions currently have Quintez Cephus and Geronimo Allison as receivers under contract in 2021...that’s it. They have approximately 1.23M in available cap space as it currently stands. I still expect them to figure out a way to bring back Kenny G, but even then, they are going to need a day one starter at WR. My mind is telling me Jaylen Waddle’s speed will get him to top 10, but I don’t love how his game meshes with Stafford nor am I fully confident he’s ready to go day one in 2021. Smith may be built like a teen who just hit a growth spurt but he’s a day one starter in the NFL and his game meshes really well with both Stafford and compliments Golladay’s. I’m really interested to see who takes in Detroit next year, but whoever it is, a potential unit of Kenny G, DeVonta Smith, an emergent TJ Hockenson and D’Andre Swift isn’t the worst place to start.
10. *Falcons*- Kwity Paye-Edge-Michigan
The Falcons need a pass rusher off of the edge, we all know that, it just comes down to which one; so having Rousseau, Paye and Parsons all still on the board is a dream scenario. While I personally have them rated Parsons, Rousseau and then Paye, it’s close enough between all three to go by fit. I honestly think the Falcons have a very strong linebacker corps and won’t get the greatest usage out of Parsons and while I love the idea of Rousseau sliding inside next to Grady Jarrett on 3rd and long, I think they need to go for day one impact and mainly the best all around true edge. For me, that makes Paye the best fit. Always a true freak athlete (which, check out Bruce Feldman’s freak list (https://theathletic.com/1938659/2020/07/21/bruce-feldmans-freaks-list-2019-college-football-top-athletic-performances-2/) but in 2020 he has made a herculean jump in production and polish. This a day one starter, with incredibly rare athletic traits, a feel good backstory and immediate impact at a gigantic need.
11. *Dolphins Via Texans*- Micah Parsons-LB-Penn St
I don’t need to go into too much detail here. The Dolphins have one of the NFL’s few good defenses thanks to a strong secondary and simply elite play calling and positioning from Flores/Boyer. That’s despite Elandon Roberts and Jerome Baker’s poor play and general talent. So what if we gave them a uniquely talented player who can play inside, outside and even play as a pure edge while fitting what the scheme wants to do perfectly? I can’t wait to find out. I think Parsons is still somewhat raw as a player and will have a few rough moments early on, simply because he’s been so so so much more naturally gifted than his competition for his entire life and hasn’t been punished for small mistakes. That said, I can’t think of a better landing spot at getting the most out of him early on and putting him in positions to succeed, nor can I think of a better player at mentoring him than Kyle Van Noy. Parsons will be an immediate upgrade and the potential for what he could grow into in Miami is tantalizing. Thanks Houston.
12. *Cowboys Via Broncos*- Patrick Surtain II-CB-Alabama
The Cowboy’s trade back pays off. I would have been between Surtain and Farley at 4th overall and while I would have leaned Farley, the gap certainly isn’t a 2022 (likely somewhat early) 1st rounder and a 4th. Pairing Surtain up with his college counterpart in Diggs should allow Diggs to go back to his natural 2 spot and provide an immediate upgrade from the triumvirate of Awuzie, Brown and Lewis. Surtain may not be the fastest straight line runner, but his hips are as smooth as they come and he makes up for any long speed deficiencies with elite mirroring and physicality. Surtain has improved as a tackler in 2020 and is probably the best day one starter at CB in this class. The Cowboys will need some safety help over the top against speed receivers, but this is an easy pick.
13. *Bears*- Christian Darrisaw-OT-Virginia Tech
The Bears would love a top 4 QB to fall into their laps at 13, but I just don’t know if they have the assets to afford a move into the top 5 right now. With Nick Foles more expensive to cut than to keep and only 2 mil in expected cap room in 2021, they will need to clear up some space. They happen to have two expensive tackles that are playing solidly but are the only non Akiem Hicks way to open up a big chunk of cap. With Ifedi a free agent expecting to see a bigger contract in 2021, the Bears have a day one need at tackle. Luckily for them, my #2 rated tackle is still on the board and is an absolute monster when he’s set and moves extremely well for his size. There are some issues getting set, but he has an extremely high ceiling and could help open up some much needed cap space for Chicago, while providing a long term solution to a two tackles who are due a lot of money, are cheap to cut and getting onto the wrong side of 30 (and coming off of a severe knee injury in Massie’s case). A receiver is an option here if they cant bring back A-Rob, as could be CB if they cut Fuller. Safety appears as a need as well, but nobody is close to a value this early. Darrishaw is the best value to need for me.
14. *Vikings*- Gregory Rousseau-Edge-Miami (FL)
I looooove this pick. A lot of people are low on Rousseau since he isn’t a finished product, but I think that’s pretty unfair. Rousseau, in his first year as a starter managed 15.5 sacks and 19.5 TFL. While his pressure rate made the sack total seem unsustainable, this is a player who will always have a high sack to pressure ratio due to his insane length, absurd speed to power and insane closing burst. Rousseau is unlikely to be a finished product in 2021, he needs to improve his move repertoire and would do well to use his length to shut down passing lanes. But he has a much higher floor than people give him credit for because he does such a good job of using his length to keep defenders outside of his body and can always detach from blocks. He physically resembles Jevon Kearse, which is something I’ve never said before and his athletic testing is going to be nutty. From a traits perspective this is a once every 5-10 years prospect. Minnesota has done a great job developing high ceiling players and have needs across the D-line. Rousseau setting an edge on run downs and sliding inside for passing downs (where he will be a nightmare from day one) will be a huge asset for the Viks. I can’t see them passing on Rousseau should he be on the board at 14 barring a sliding Trey Lance.
15. *Patriots*- Jaylen Waddle-WR-Alabama
It baffles me that a great defensive mind like BB has allowed himself to have such a slow receiver group, but I can’t imagine him just allowing it to remain as is. The Pats have holes along the D-line and would love a franchise QB, but have played themselves out of contention for the clear round one talents. While I have to imagine Kyle Pitts would be extremely enticing here, he doesn’t offer the ability to play in-line/move nor would he be functional slid in at FB. Without the ability to disguise playcalls, I see Waddle as the pick here to add some much needed electricity and field stretching ability despite having Pitts rated slightly higher. Jakobi Meyers has emerged as a solid receiver for the Pats and the ghost of Julian Edelman remains. With Waddle demanding defensive attention, perhaps he can open up some free space for N’Keal Harry to finally realize some of the yac ability that got him drafted so highly. Edge has to be tempting, but with Rousseau and Paye both off of the board the gap between what Waddle brings to the table vs a second round receiver and a Basham type vs who will be there at 46 leans heavily in Waddle’s favor. Assuming he’s fully healthy at the combine, I think this is Waddle’s floor.
16. *49ers*- Jaycee Horn-CB-South Carolina
The 49ers would love to see a top 4 QB fall to 16 and have to be somewhat interested in Trask and Jones as scheme fits, but they also currently have literally zero cornerbacks under contract for 2021, nor are they particularly flush with cap space nor do they have a third round pick. Jaycee Horn is not only my clear cut CB3 (maaaybe can see a case for Stokes) but he’s also a great fit for what Saleh wants to do should he remain in town. This is one of the easier picks in the first for me. Good fit, arguably best player available and absolutely massive,gaping, day one need. Wyatt Davis is a strong 1B for me though.
17. *Jaguars Via Raiders*- Kyle Pitts-TE-Florida
The Jags have a ton of picks early this year, a coordinator who excels at using athletic receiving TE, a rookie QB who they will be heavily invested in succeeding, a clear need at TE and a likely willing trade partner in Las Vegas. Trading up to grab Pitts is a no-brainer for me. He’s a top 10 talent in the class who could legitimately compete for WR1 in the class should he be listed that way. Is he a great blocker? No. But he’s literally breaking records at catching contested balls, runs the crispest routes i’ve ever seen from a TE and is going to be a prime Jimmy Graham level end-zone threat who can win at every point on the field. Who matches up with this guy? Not a CB, not an LB, maaaaaybe Isaiah Simmons on his best day or a Derwin James? Factor in Jay Gruden knowing exactly how to use this kind of talent and how ridiculously accurate Justin Fields is and you have to make this trade. A Justin Fields offense with this receiving group and Gruden calling plays gets me excited. Just need a tackle and a defense and we may just have something here. Jason Mendoza would be ecstatic.
18. *Ravens*-Wyatt Davis-IOL-Ohio St
The Ravens are reeeeally missing Marshall Yanda and Davis is easily the top IOL in this class for me. I think the Ravens are trying to move away from their 2019 offensive strategy since the don’t have the pieces, but the answer is actually to rebuild around what actually worked. That has to start in the trenches. Wyatt Davis embodies Ravens football. He is a genuine people mover, but he doesn’t sacrifice speed or mobility to achieve that power. He’s pure controlled aggression, and if that’s not a Harbaugh player, I don’t know Harbaugh. If Davis played any other position, he wouldn’t be on the board at 18. Plug and play week one starter who can help get the Ravens back to the 2019 glory. If Pitts is off of the board, this has to be the pick.
19. *Giants*- Joseph Ossai-Edge-Texas
The Giants situation isn’t as bad as I thought at first glance. They haven’t had the best offensive line pay, but with Nate Solder set to return in ‘21, Andrew Thomas starting to look closer to a top 10 pick and Matt Peart as an interesting developmental piece, it felt early to reach on a tackle and I don’t love any interior lineman enough to pull the trigger here. Receiver is a glaring need, but I think there will still be impact starters to get in round two and money to spend in FA as needed. I don’t hate Daniel Jones from my looks and think if the line and skill positions improve around him, he still has a chance to develop into a second contract sort of guy. He deserves his 40 start sample size. With Saquon set to return, that leaves edge as the most glaring need. Leonard Williams and Dalvin Tomlinson are both free agents (though should imo be brought back) and Kyle Fackrell doesn’t deserve another season as a starter. In Patrick Graham’s multiple 3-4 front, there happen to be two exciting players who fit the rush LB mold extremely well and fit value wise. Azeez Ojulari and Jospeh Ossai. I have Ossai rated slightly higher on my board and love his fit in this defense as a better early down linebacker with a higher athletic ceiling in coverage and better length to entice Gettleman while avoiding combo blocks. The dude is no slouch as a pass rusher either. I love the player and love the fit in a defense that might just emerge in ‘21 if things go right.
20. *Cardinals*- Eric Stokes-CB-Georgia
The Cardinals 2021 will have Patrick Peterson, Johnathan Joseph and Dre Kirkpatrick all hitting free agency next year, leaving just slot corner Byron Murphy and a soon to be 33 year old Robert Alford coming off a broken leg to end 2019, torn pec that cost him all of 2020 who can be cut to clear 7.5M of cap space. Corner jumps out as a need both long term and potentially from day one. Few players in this class have impressed me as much as Stokes has. Stokes has always been a technically sound player who shines bright outside in press, with loose hips and long arms to obscure passing lanes. But in 2020, he’s taken that next step into a playmaker. Despite teams tending to avoid throwing at him, he’s flashed greatly improved ball skills and even housed two of the picks he has. I think this is a true all around outside corner who can fit in any scheme and do whatever is asked of him. I don’t exactly see a pro bowl ceiling here, but I think Stokes might be the safest CB in this entire class and it wouldn’t shock me if he had the best rookie year of this solid corner class. People tend to underrate a good, polished CB2 chasing upside that doesn’t always fully develop. Draft good football players.
21. *Buccaneers*- Azeez Ojulari-Edge-Georgia
In a down IDL class, I’m tempted to reach for Barmore here and with Donovan Smith able to be cut to clear 14.25M in 2021, a polished tackle like Eichenberg is somewhat enticing. But with both Lavonte David and Shaq Barrett set to be expensive free agents next year, I think a rush LB/edge hybrid is the biggest need and it just so happens Ojulari is still on the board. When I watch Ojulari I pretty much see Shaq Barrett. A smaller, still long bursty/bendy player who can rush the passer at an elite rate, but will struggle setting an edge. Barrett is a good player, but he’s going to demand a contract that will pay him more than he’s worth and take him into the wrong side of 30. Ojulari can replace something very close to Barrett on rushing downs while a cheap Anthony Nelson is already an elite edge setter on run downs. Lavonte David is a much harder player to replace IMO and they should give him the big contract. Between Nelson and Ojulari, I think they can replace Barrett for 20M less a year and honestly, the pairing has a higher ceiling if everything comes together. It will also help the Bucc’s line get younger, which is much needed for future outlook. I can’t think of a better coach than Todd Bowles to max out a guy like Ojulari. Love this fit.
22. *Dolphins*- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah-LB-Notre Dame
After addressing linebacker with pick number 11, the Dolphins double down and draft another at pick 22. If you’re going to start two monster rush LB like Kyle Van Noy and Micah Parsons, it sure as hell won’t hurt to have an absolute speed freak to fly around and neutralize both TE and speed backs. The closest thing I’ve seen to Owusu-Koramoah is basically the 2020 Seahawks version of Jamal Adams (minus the injury) undersized for an LB but incredibly fast, incredibly good at deciphering plays and a surprisingly good blitzer. The dude finishes tackles against future sunday morning players too. As mentioned earlier, Elandon Roberts and Jerome Baker ain’t it, especially in a mainly odd front defense. JOK offers a truly unique skill set that not only compliments the pieces already there well, but will be maximized by a coach like Flores. The Dolphins have needs on the O-line, receiver and RB, but you won’t find another JOK in the second round, where they have two picks. Perhaps they can target Owusu-Koramaoh’s son, Travis Etienne with one of those picks.
23. *Colts*- Jaelan Phillips-Edge-Miami (FL)
The Colts have needs at WR,CB and will likely do their due diligence on the remaining QBs. However, the Colts top 3 snap getters on the edge (Houston, Muhammad and Autry) are all free agents, only Houston has been performing well and he’s already 32. Even if he returns, edge will be a need. While Phillips won’t be the top edge available on every team's board here due to a very small sample size and a long injury history, I have to imagine Ballard will be head over heals for this player. Ballard has shown in the past he wants to target athletes with length and Phillips has both in spades. The former #1 overall recruit has insane length, insane burst, elite bend,elite speed to power and knows how to use all four to be first to contact and shed tackles like snake skin. Phillips measurables and 2020 tape are clear cut first round grades and had he had three healthy years, he might be the top edge in the class. The dude even wins in coverage at 6’5 265. The question is, do you trust him to stay healthy. He’s the type of player that will be top 15 on 8 teams boards, mid day two on 10 teams boards and completely off of 14 teams boards. I think Ballard is going to fall in the first group of GMs and he will rush to the podium to get Phillips in the building.
24. *Browns*- Zaven Collins-LB-Tulsa
The Browns have clear needs at edge and linebacker. If Owusu-Koramoah were on the board, he’d be the pick and Dylan Moses has to make them think. But I think they instead get them somebody who can do both. Andrew Berry has shown a strong correlation of draft picks to PFF grades and guess who PFF’s top graded LB in all of college football is? Zaven Collins. More than just questionably important player grades at Tulsa, Zaven Collins has the unteachable traits you can’t coach and scouting teams will love. 6’4 260 pound men shouldn’t be able to move like this. Collins is nimble and agile and is going to blow up the combine. I’d bet money on that. He uses this blend of size and agility to simple avoid blocks at Tulsa but has the size and length to easily disengage at any level. He is borderline elite in coverage and has bullied American conference passers into 2 pass deflections and 4 picks (which he’s returned for 152 yards and 2 TDs) in just 6 2020 games. Collins can rush the passer as well and has legit edge size. Collins currently plays more fast (which he is) than powerful (which he also is). I’d like to see him learn to use his size to initiate contact and bully people at the point of contact because he absolutely can, but I guess why do it when you can just avoid them completely. The game speeds up from the American conference to the AFC North, but I think Collins is a day one LB, special teams force and has potential to develop into a very special player. Watching him play, he reminds me of a cross between KJ Wright and Jamie Collins, but bigger. Fun Player and easy fit.
25. *Raiders Via Jaguars*- Christian Barmore-IDL-Alabama
After trading back and acquiring an extra top 70 pick, the Raiders select the player they wanted all along. The Raiders need a more consistent pass rush. Clelin Ferell has taken a huge step forward in 2020, but he will always be a stop the run player more than a sack artist (as is Nassib), while I’m not ready to give up on Maxx Crosby, he hasn’t been the same player he was in 2019 (or close to it). Maurice Hurst has been their only good pass rusher for my money, but he will need help inside. Johnathan Hankins is a free agent, soon to be on the wrong side of 30. Vickers and Collins certainly aren’t the answer. In a down IDL class, Barmore is the only player I can see ging round one and is easily my top IDL in the class. Is he a polished player and tactician? Nope. NFL double teams will likely eat him if he can’t add more moves or play with better leverage. That said, if you try to double him, Hurst is gonna murder your quarterback. Barmore has rare length, bend and power for an interior player. He already wins against SEC lineman and can play all across the line despite being 310 pounds. When he wins, he wins quickly and is an immediate disruptive force up the middle. Put him outside in short yardage situations and back inside on clear passing downs and he will immediately be an upgrade for the black and silver. He won’t be a 3-down guy year one, but that doesn’t mean he won’t make an impact. Long term, the sky is the limit. This is the only IDL in this class I can envision making a pro bowl. He also just so happens to come from the winning culture that Gruden?Mayock love. It just makes too much sense not to happen.
26. *Jets Via Seattle*- Carlos Basham-Edge-Wake Forest
It’s still TBD who will be the Jets DC in 2021, but I think they have personnel best suited for a true multiple front but could certainly use a genuinely polished power edge suited to play both 3-4 and 4-3 edge. Basham is that guy and while Joe Douglas has a love for quick twitch athletes off of the edge, I think Boogie Basham would make too much sense to pass up on here. Basham (who’s cousin Tarrell is a current Jet likely to be brought back for 2021) is a relentless load to handle on the perimeter who has the kind of day one polish this team needs. Basham has a fantastic grasp on how to clog gaps on run downs, is a sure tackler with his massive wingspan, sheds blocks with a very impressive and polished array of moves, never seems to be out of position, doesn’t over pursue and get out of position and man knows how to use his long-limbed frame to create chaos. Across his last 19 games, he has forced 7 fumbles and tipped 4 passes despite being double and triple teamed week in, week out. Basham isn’t a poor athlete by any means, but I would say he’s more of a day two bend/burst combo than typical day one. That said, he has day one starter polish at 285, makes the players around him better and creates turnovers. This isn’t your 10 sack a year guy, but it’s your 6-8 sack a year, consistent 3 down/scheme versatile edge who makes the players around him better and brings much needed leadership skills.
27. *Titans*- Dylan Moses-LB-Alabama
I expect this to be one of my most controversial picks in this mock. With Clowney a free agent again, edge is a glaring need, but unless you want to reach big time for an edge there isn’t anybody left. With only 10M of cap space currently in 2021, Corey davis has likely priced himself out of town with a boom season. WR is a need but one that can be addressed later. Daquan Jones will need to be replaced at DT. But with Jayon Brown likely gone in 2021, I have to think the former LB and the former Patriot in Mike Vrabel is going to fall in love with Dylan Moses the player; as well as Dylan Moses the person. Moses is a freak athlete with a freak work ethic who clearly just loves the game of football. The movement skills, power and tackling ability are all special. That said, he’s had a somewhat down year. He has good instincts, but you can visually see him second guess himself and overthink plays. RPO’s, sudden moves and good routes have eaten him up in 2020. Who better to teach a special ball of clay how to turn his brain off than Vrabel? Moses will be a day one starter, immediate locker room leader and running back neutralizer in day one for the Titans. There will be some rough moments early on, but this is the kind of player Vrabel loves and the ceiling is really high for this pairing. A reach for Jason Oweh or Jay Tufele feel possible here as well, as could a Bateman or Marshall pick.
28. *Bills*- Shaun Wade-CB-Ohio St
Bills could use an edge if they can’t bring back Murphy, would have to take a long look at Moses if he were on the board and could really use a Pat Freiermuth...but if the draft falls like this I expect them to run to the podium. Josh Norman, Levi Wallace and Daryl Worley are all free agents in 2021 and Taron Johnson isn’t particularly good. With just 4.8M in 2021, this likely means the Bills will need a minimum of one cheap starting CB and likely both a slot and outside guy. Wade can fill both roles and is simply too talented to remain on the board here. Easy pick to make.
29. *Packers*- Rashod Bateman-WR-Minnesota
Do the Packers seemingly ever draft WR round one? No. Should they? Yep. Do they currently have the cap space to bring back Allan Lazard? Lol no. They have -18M in cap space next year. It’s worth noting that this means they are extremely unlikely to be able to resign Aaron Jones, which explains the weird AJ Dillon reach and opens up RB as a possibility. That makes me tempted to grab Kadarius Toney as a Kamara role hybrid, but that doesn’t seem like a Packers move. Terrace Marshall feels like a Packers pick, but he doesn’t block as well as Bateman and won’t be quite as good day one. I think Gutekunst will fall in love with Bateman’s boundary receiving skills, Rodgers will lobby hard for a receiver that wins with a skillset similar to Davante Adams and LaFleur will fall in love with Bateman’s alpha run-blocking game. Toss in the fact that Bateman in Green Bay will rip the heart out of Vikings fans and it’s an all around win. Linebacker is an absolutely glaring need, but all the good ones are gone and the Packers seem to hate drafting them even more than hate drafting receivers. Love this fit and pick.
30. *Chiefs*- Rashawn Slater-OT-Northwestern
The Chiefs have had one hell of a run, but 2021 will be the beginning of having to pay the piper. Even without resigning Sammy Watkins, Charvarius Ward, Breeland, Nieman, Wilson, osemele, Rieters, Remmers, Wylie, Robinson, Lev Bell, Sorenson,kpassagnon and Pennell among players who saw heavy snaps in 2020; they will be -15M in 2021 cap space. And that’s BEFORE the roster gets expensive in 2022. This means, at minimum two of the Honey Badger, Mitchell Schwartz and Eric Fisher will be cap casualties. Basically the entire o-line and secondary will be needs, as well as 1-2 WR. Rashawn Slater of “the only player not to be sucked into the void by Chase Young in 2019” fame can play 4 of the line slots, moves incredibly well for a man his size, can play in cold weather and is apparently loved by “NFL types”. This feels like a pick the Chiefs have to make.
31. *Saints*- Tyson Campbell-CB-Georgia
If you thought the Chiefs cap situation was bad….the Saints currently have -95M of cap space in 2021. -95M. Jared Cook, Alex Anzalone, Sheldon Rankins, Marcus Williams and Trey Hendrickson are impact free agents who won’t be able to be resigned. Making LB, FS, Edge and IDL big needs. Ryan Ramczyk, Marshon Lattimore, Malcolm Brown and Kwon Alexander almost 100% have to be cut. It’s a bad spot to be in. Tackle, QB, LB, DT and CB all stand out as the biggest needs. With two QB’s fully guaranteed over 33M in dead cap in 2021, reaching for a QB round one doesn’t seem likely. Jaylen Mayfield or a Liam Eichenberg seem possible, as could a Jay Tufele but there will be more potential day one starters there round two than CB. Tyson Campbell has injury concerns and has had a pretty poor 2020, but he looks built in a lab to be a CB1. I think this is the replacement for a Lattimore that the Saints simply can’t afford next year. It’s a very wide range of possible outcome player, but it’s a risk they have to take.
32. *Steelers*- Jalen Mayfield-OT-Michigan
The Steelers are yet another team in 2021 cap hell. Sitting pretty at -20M in 2021, the Steelers will have Bud Dupree, Juju, James Conner, Matt Feiler, Cam Sutton, Mike Hilton, Robert Spillane and Tyson Alualu as free agent starters. Edge, OT, CB and RB all jump out as big needs even before cap casualties and the QB of the future still isn’t in the building. In particular, tackle, edge and RB jump out as needs. Jalen Mayfield is a lab built tackle with great length, power and agility wrapped up in a prototypical frame. He is not yet a finished product, who struggles against speed to power and gets over his toes at times. But he has the traits you can’t teach and should thrive in a power concept. Year one will be up and down and in a perfect world, he’d have a year or two to season. Maybe Eichenberg will be a better fit. But he just screams Steelers power football when he gets his lower half right. I can’t see Mike Tomlin go for a RB with the ball security issues Etienne has and while Harris will be tempting, the needs up front are just too much to pass up on a potential starter.

I have plenty to do today, but it can wait. I have a lot on my mind. I have no plan for this and I assure you if you read a stat, it was made up. But here they are: the top ten reasons the Browns will win on Sunday.
1.People Think the Chiefs Have Been Playing with Their Food by Playing Close Games, When Really They are Just Not as in Control As Everyone Thinks
Two years ago, when Mahomes first made his appearance in the league, the Chiefs were blowing people out of the water. Teams didn't know what was hitting them. He won the MVP handily and, if not for Dee Ford placing his hand two inches in the wrong direction, might have won a Super Bowl.
After losing Mahomes in the middle of last year, the team lost its stability, and the defense became a liability. When Mahomes led some heroic comebacks in the playoffs, people were wowed by his superhuman abilities and thought, like a superhero who fishes himself out of deep trouble 2/3rds of the way through the movie, "that was the plan the whole time!"
For specific reasons, the Chiefs are good at stretch-the-field, come-from-behind scenarios. But it's not the plan. The fact is, it's something of an open secret that the Chiefs lack a true identity, but win despite this major shortcoming.

1. The Chiefs Have Been Pretending to Have a Run Game For Two Years

Andy Reid has had 4 good running backs in his career: Duce Staley, Brian Westbrook, LeSean McCoy, and Kareem Hunt. (He also got Jamaal Charles for 1 year.)
Ever since the departure of Kareem Hunt, Reid has been scrambling to find someone to replace him. He certainly has a type: shifty, elusive backs who are good in open space. Since losing Kareem Hunt it has been: Darrel Williams, Damien Williams, Darwin Thompson, and an aged LeSean McCoy. None of them are what he wants. He carouseled through them last year as they got injured, grew fumbling problems, or he just was tired of seeing their faces. At some point he resigned himself to the fact that he didn't have a run game, and he only needed to pretend to have one.
Enter the drafting of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and the signing of Le'Veon Bell. Edwards-Helaire has been serviceable, but he is awful between the tackles, and his elusiveness hasn't been reliable. Aside from that, he has an ankle injury and did not practice today. Le'Veon Bell has been pretending to play football as most plays he begins with a hesitation, as though he is trying to remember something he knew in 2017 that he has since forgotten.
The fact is that the Chiefs have limited dimensions as an offense. They depend on the bowling-ballness of Kelce and the speed of their receivers to get open, despite the fact teams mostly do not have to worry about the run game at all.

1. The Chiefs Have Two Plays and the Rest is Seeing How Long They Can Hold Their Breath Underwater

If you watch Chiefs highlights, they are very different from Browns highlights. One play you'll see is Hill or Hardman on a jet sweep, and the other is a slant or post to Kelce. Those are the only plays they run on time. Because there is so much coverage down the field, Reid ends each playcall into Mahomes' headset saying, "...and if that doesn't work, I'm sure you'll think of something."
Which is what happens 75% of the time, according to my own feelings and beliefs. Mahomes is the best scrambler in the league and each play lasts about as long as a Youtube ad you can't skip. This is where the Chiefs make their money. Mahomes has such vision, scrambling ability, and unique-kind-of-pass ability, he usually figures something out. And Hill, Hardman, and Kelce each have unique advantages that they usually outrun the coverage.
But this also means that the Chiefs offense is built on tightrope walking. We are so often impressed with Mahomes because of the ravine on either side of the play; there are so many ways things could go wrong. You can say "But it's Mahomes! It never does go wrong!" This isn't true, he just usually makes up for his mistakes. He took an awful sack vs Miami, the longest in a billion years in the NFL, and threw what should have been a game-ending dropped pick vs Atlanta in his last action of the season. While you're still a hero, everyone only remembers the hits.

1. Their Defense Is Nothing To Write Home About

And that's why I'm not going to write you about it. Their defense only won them 2 games this year, their first game vs. Justin Herbert, and the game vs. Atlanta. Their defense is quite similar to ours, except that their rushers have been underachieving. Given their offense, their defense has been good enough.

1. They Are Super Bowl Hungover And Have Nothing to Play For In Their Hearts

In a documentary on his coaching career Bill Belichick said many people aim to scale the mountain; the tough thing, though, is once you have scaled it to stay at the top. It's a very rare accomplishment.
So are the Chiefs going to stay on top of the mountain? So far people have assumed that the Chiefs have been "playing with their food" and waiting to be really good until the playoffs.
But many people have also noted that the Chiefs often play "bored." They have coasted on their elite talent - their speed, Kelce's biceps, and Mahomes rain dance scrambling drills. It's like how I know how to make a really good sweet potato curry. Once I nailed that recipe, I just figured "why not do this every time? It's fun." Now I look like a sweet potato curry addict.
Not to get political, but I heard one (conservative) analyst say that this year that the incumbent lost because, "The first rule of elections is you never run the same campaign twice." Right now, the Chiefs are doing just that. The Titans just ran the same campaign twice, and they found out what happens. The Chiefs bear an eerily similar feeling to the 2011 Packers, 15-1 the season after their Super Bowl win, who came out and nose dived in the divisional round to the Giants. The Chiefs will not look as bad as the Packers did that game, but there is a real question of who will have the fire in this game.

1. People Were Busy Monitoring their Ebay Bidding Wars and Failed to Notice That Baker Mayfield Has Arrived

Football is so much a week-by-week thing, and our culture is so oriented toward hot takes and short videos, that people have completely missed the big picture arc of Baker Mayfield. While he still has flaws to clean up, they currently act only as a smokescreen to cover the fact that Baker Mayfield is now a force.
Mayfield's hyper-energetic playstyle and laser-zip passes earned him the Heisman trophy in 2017. By 2018, he showed this playstyle can work the exact same way in the NFL, as he gunned the ball wherever he wanted in 2018. A glimpse of what was to come.
In 2019, the wheels fell off the bus because, for the first time in his life, Baker didn't have an adequate structure around him. People fell into the delusion of thinking he was the magician, that his Heisman-ness and 2018 machismo could overcome the force of hyper-attentive defensive planning. It was a total disaster.
Because 2019 was gleefully received by people who rooted for Baker's downfall, associating him with the jocks they had hated in high school, the narrative of him being a bust reached escape velocity. From Browns' fans perspective, their 2018 hope was quickly enveloped by their long-tenured cynicism about the organization. In the off-season, his name was left on the back porch like a crate of used milk bottles to be picked up.
Then something happened. What Browns fans discovered, and the rest of Baker's bitter audience was displeased to remember, is there are about half a dozen young offensive minds who have emerged from Shanahan/Kubiak coaching tree who are a blink ahead of everyone on offensive scheming. With one of these directing Baker, he has adapted his raw college skills into a precision passing game that can take a game over. Because the first half of the year we were primarily a run team while Baker learned the system, and then we hit a spate of bad weather, people have missed this emerging phenomenon: the Browns are now a team that flows through Baker Mayfield, who has a scheme which he wields with growing dexterity by the week.
The numbers are there, from PFF grades to point totals, and people are wondering if it's real. But if you pay attention to the big picture, you know it's real. This is the real Baker Mayfield, and he's rolling into Kansas City on Sunday afternoon.

1. Batman and Superman

Where on the Chiefs team there is a gaping vacuum, the Browns have situated their best playmakers. While the Chiefs have the better overall receiving corps, the Browns' backfield packs the punch and versatility that Andy Reid can only dream of having. This gives the Browns' offense a naturally balancing aspect to it that the Chiefs offense lacks. Because the Browns' run threat is so real, it can never truly be ignored by a defense. When Stefanski gets what he wants early in a game, he is able to play defenses like a fiddle between the run and the pass.

1. The Browns Offensive Line

Billy Callahan is back on the sidelines, and the starters to the best offensive line in football are right on time. While they can so often be invisible, this game might truly come down to the differences between the offensive lines. If the run game gets going, and Baker has time to pick his target, while on the other hand KC has its hands full of Myles Garrett, the story of the game might be written right there.
It fits in well with this that the Browns are playing with heads full of steam, and I'm betting on our blockers in this game to set the tone early and often.

1. Kevin Stefanski, in a State of Ultimate Zen, Used Watching the Game On Sunday to Realize 486 New Things That He Could Use on Offense This Week

Much ink has been spilled about Andy Reid's record after a bye, which we can only presume comes because he looks at his play sheet and draws a squiggle in a new direction. Excellent work, Andy. While Andy was using his time in a theoretical head space, Stefanski was gifted an opportunity to self-scout and reach offensive enlightenment from the comfort of his own basement.
The truth is that, as Browns fans, we know that Stefanski has been switching things up each week. The best teams evolve throughout the season, and his usage of his players has been varied and dynamic depending on what the game calls for. While Reid has a proven track record, Stefanski is the wild card. While I am somewhat afraid he may overthink things, I think he retains the edge in playing his best saved tricks. With Callahan and AVP getting the ole band back together, they will be able to take their absolute best shot to upset the defending champs.

1. The New Browns Have Arrived, They are Angry, and They Are Playing with Nothing to Lose

"Just the 'Same Old Browns'! Just the 'Same Old Browns'!"
At the beginning of the season I wrote about the start of a Browns Way, that secret ingredient that touches each player and personnel member as they enter an organization, one that plants the seeds of success in them from the very start. While I saw various things pointing to the start of a Browns Way early in the season, I could never have dreamed to see it erupt into being like we did this past week in Pittsburgh, within a storm of events that not even the worst Browns' cynic could have foreseen.
The real evidence of the Browns Way for this season has been not a presence, but a silence. People across the nation woke up Monday quite surprised to find the Browns were in the 2nd round of the playoffs, and that's for a very specific reason: no one has been talking about us this year. Comparing this to last year, what this indicates is a lack of chaos. Every week last year - and for the last 20 years - it's been "this guy did this, this guy said that" and a maelstrom of drama would be created just to fill the headlines for a week. It emotionally exhausts the fans, and it definitely exhausts the players. Jeff Garcia said we were the most negative media culture he had ever been a part of.
You could definitely tell the change in Baker's interviews. Last year they were extremely tense, and a headline would usually be born of them. This year his entire composure changed; his focus was inward, on the team, and he wasn't going to go in for the shenanigans again this year. He was now protective of his team in a whole new way.
The focus that Stefanski has instilled in his team on the task at hand, while invisible to most eyes all year, has now been confirmed in the most dramatic of ways. With almost no change in his demeanor at all, he announced to the team he would not be able to coach them in the biggest game of the year. Suddenly, every player faced a choice, a reflection point: "Do I really believe in what we've been doing? Do I really believe in this team?"
We know the results. With their backs against the wall, outmanned, and understaffed, the Browns played the most physical, impassioned game they had all year. What we were happy to see on Sunday was not just that the Browns were winning, but also how they were winning. We knew this team was playing with confidence, determination, and moxie - and that they were doing it for each other. In a mysterious way, I think we witnessed the real life presence of the Browns Way, a focus and determination that doesn't change based on the circumstances.
Everyone who paid any attention could see: these were not the same old Browns.
I think Kansas City is going to need some luck this Sunday, if they are to stand a chance.

Had to change the format so I followed the community rules.
The 2020 college football season has come to a close with the Alabama Crimson Tide once again on top of the college football world. Bama won an exciting, albeit lopsided, national championship game over Ohio State as Nick Saban claimed his seventh title.
As you might expect, this mock is going to feature a lot of soon-to-be former Tide players and a few Buckeyes as well. I have six Alabama players coming off the board in the first round, including quarterback Mac Jones.
Speaking of quarterbacks, there are six that I could see drafted in the first two rounds at this point. There is still a ton of assessing to be done with the Senior Bowl coming up, hopefully, followed by the NFL scouting combine.
There are two trades that occur in the first round of this mock, both involving quarterbacks.
Cincinnati trades 1.5 and 5.133 to San Francisco for 1.12, 2.43 and a 2022 first-round pick Detroit trades 1.7 to New England for 1.15, 2.46 and 2022 first-round pick
The draft order is according to Tankathon and updated through the wildcard weekend. Time to dive in!

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-15) - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

I know there is some buzz about Urban Meyer landing with the Jaguars and taking Justin Fields. I don't buy it. Trevor Lawrence is one of the best quarterback prospects of all time. His poise, athleticism and arm strength make him a Day 1 starter. He would give Jacksonville it's most exciting quarterback situation in franchise history.

1. New York Jets (2-14) - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

This comes down to Justin Fields vs. Zach Wilson. It's going to be close. As of right now, I give the edge to Wilson. He has incredible zip on his throws and a lightning quick release. Wilson is a proven runner as well. He will need to take care of his body at the next level, but he looks the part of an NFL quarterback. It is no secret he works hard either. The Jets would find a potential new leader for their offense.

1. Miami Dolphins via Houston Texans (10-6) - Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

There is some buzz about the Dolphins trading this pick back to the Texans in a deal for Deshaun Watson. If that is on the table, Miami should pull the trigger. Otherwise, this team should stand pat and protect Tua. There are plenty of other receivers to take later in this draft. There are not many offensive tackles like Penei Sewell though. He is a polished pass blocker with good functional athleticism and plenty of play strength. He sat out the 2020 season, but he will remind everyone at the combine (assuming it happens) just how talented he is.

1. Atlanta Falcons (4-12) - Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama

While some will advocate for a quarterback here, Matt Ryan likely isn't going anywhere anytime soon because of his contract. Instead, the Falcons take a talented player at a huge position of need. Drafting Patrick Surtain II gives Atlanta a tandem of young corners to build the defense around. Surtain has great ball skills and an NFL pedigree. Not to mention he brings plenty of big-game experience coming out of Alabama. This defense allowed the most passing yards per game in 2020. Don't overthink it. Grab a top-end corner and move forward.

1. San Francisco 49ers via Cincinnati Bengals (4-11-1) - Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

With two of the top four quarterbacks still on the board and Penei Sewell already gone, phones in Cincinnati would be lighting up! The Bengals move down, allowing the 49ers to find their quarterback of the future. Cutting Jimmy Garoppolo saves a ton of cap space. Justin Fields' ceiling is higher than that of Garoppolo's too. Fields brings a ton of intangibles to the table with his arm strength and speed. He definitely needs to improve some of his decision making and work on consistently hitting his release. Working with Kyle Shanahan would be a great way to help him reach his full potential.

1. Philadelphia Eagles (4-11-1) - Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU

If Patrick Surtain was still here, that would have been the pick. However, it is hard to be mad about landing the top receiver in the class. Ja'Marr Chase is a matchup nightmare with a great blend of size and speed. He dominated the SEC in 2019 before opting out in 2020. He would give whomever the Eagles decide to start at quarterback a clear No. 1 receiver. Philly has been looking to fill that void for a long time.

1. New England Patriots via Detroit Lions (5-11) - Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

Detroit has a ton of holes to fill and a new general manager coming in. I think we could see them trade down come April. The Patriots jump up to find a succession plan to Tom Brady, probably a few years too late. Trey Lance is a bit more raw than the other top quarterback prospects, but he has some special physical tools. If he gets a year to get up to speed in the NFL and improve his deep accuracy, he could be a long-term solution at quarterback for years to come. With his effortless arm strength and impressive mobility, the sky is the limit for Lance.

1. Carolina Panthers (5-11) - Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State

Sometimes, things just fall into place perfectly. Carolina needs a new linebacker to roam the field and match wits with opposing quarterbacks. Micah Parsons could step in from Day 1 and provide a huge boost to an exciting young defense. He has the prototypical size teams want for modern day linebackers with some added pass rushing potential. Parsons won't be Luke Keuchley, but he is probably the team's best option to attempt to fill the void he left when he retired.

1. Denver Broncos (5-11) - Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami

I'm not forgetting about Bradley Chubb or Von Miller, with the latter hopefully coming back from injury at full strength in 2021. Gregorey Rousseau has the potential to take over at one of the defensive end spots though while Miller and Chubb play on the outside. Rousseau is huge at 6'7" with room to add some muscle to that frame. He looks most comfortable rushing the passer from the interior in the limited tape I've watched so far of him at Miami. Denver needs a jolt in its front three. Rousseau has the potential to become a cornerstone player on this defense.

1. Dallas Cowboys (6-10) - Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech

When you allow the most points in franchise history and fire your defensive coordinator after one season, it's probably a good sign that you need to add some talent to your defense. Caleb Farley is a big, physical corner who can command a spot on the outside for this Cowboys defense. After sitting out the 2020 season, he will get a chance to solidify his draft stock at the combine. Dallas desperately missed Byron Jones this year. While Farley is not a like-for-like fit, he can help fill the void and create an exciting young tandem with Trevon Diggs.

1. New York Giants (6-10) - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

If you want to rank the Alabama receivers over the past two years, Jaylen Waddle is second on my list behind Jerry Jeudy. Yes, I would take him over DeVonta Smith and Henry Ruggs. While Smith, deservedly, won the Heisman, Waddle was in the conversation this year before he got hurt. He was the go-to player in the offense, amassing 557 receiving yards and four touchdowns in his four games before the injury. Waddle is electric in the open field. I like how he projects to the next level just a bit more than Smith. If the Giants are determined to see Daniel Jones succeed, finding a playmaker like Waddle will make a huge difference.

1. Cincinnati Bengals via San Francisco 49ers (6-10) - Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech

Slide down seven spots and land an offensive line prospect with tons of potential? Sign every Bengals fan in the world up for that. Probably sign Joe Burrow up for that too. Christian Darrisaw has a bit of developing still to do, but he looks very comfortable playing on the left side of the line. His size and athleticism point to tons of untapped potential. He has room to improve in his footwork and technique, but those are coachable aspects of the game.

1. Los Angeles Chargers (7-9) - Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas

Protecting Justin Herbert should be the top priority for the Chargers this offseason. For a team that seems to be growing into a potential championship window with a rookie quarterback, finding a franchise tackle to grow with it would be a great fit. Samuel Cosmi's ceiling might be the highest of any offensive tackle in this draft. At 6'7", 309 lbs, Cosmi is huge, but he moves like a much smaller man. He looks comfortable pulling, blocking in space and anchoring down on the quarterback's blind side. He is extremely raw and will need some good coaching to perfect his technique, hand usage and footwork to reach his potential. In two years though, he could be one of the top five tackles in the league. There is some risk though that he ends up being a guard if he cannot develop.

1. Minnesota Vikings (7-9) - Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina

Mike Zimmer called this the worst defense he has ever had. Let's assume they will look to rebuild it then during the 2021 offseason. Jaycee Horn has lockdown corner potential. He is an elite man-to-man corner. South Carolina moved him all over the formation, allowing him to gain some experience in the slot, blitzing off the edge, playing off coverage and playing zone. He should upgrade the secondary right away. This does not mean Minnesota is bailing on Jeff Gladney after a rough rookie season. Adding Horn just creates more depth and potential for a turnaround next season.

1. Detroit Lions via New England Patriots (7-9) - DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama

Cue the "did you even watch the national championship game?" reactions. DeVonta Smith has been the best offensive player in college football this season. The combination of speed, route running and catch radius makes him lethal. Opposing defenses have had no answer. The main concerns are about his size. He has a very slight frame at 175 lbs, which begs questions about his ability to survive in the NFL. He will also face some major better defenses at the next level. After trading down, the Lions can invest in either a replacement for Kenny Golladay or someone to line up across from him in the future.

1. Arizona Cardinals (8-8) - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

This has become one of my favorite prospect-team pairings in these early mock drafts. Kyle Pitts would thrive in the Cardinals offense. It would hide a number of his shortcomings as a blocker by allowing him to flex out and make plays in space. He would give Kyler Murray a great target over the middle of the field and in the red zone and open up more opportunities for DeAndre Hopkins. The drop off from Hopkins to the next-best receiving option in this offense is steep. Pitts would bridge the gap.

1. Las Vegas Raiders (8-8) - Christian Barmore, DL, Alabama

Las Vegas' defense was not what many had hoped for after some signs of progress in 2019. The pass rush regressed and the secondary struggled. Enter Christian Barmore. Fresh off a dominant national championship game, he showcased his talent and potential heading into a potential NFL career. His ability as an interior pass rusher would fill a huge need for the Raiders.

1. Miami Dolphins (10-6) - Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia

Still not a receiver. I will get there, I promise Dolphins fans. Miami got solid production out of Andrew Van Ginkel and Kyle Van Noy, but neither one is irreplaceable. Azeez Ojulari is a polished pass rusher with an array of moves at his disposal to beat opposing offensive tackles. He would provide the Dolphins with a situational rusher who can develop into a long-term starter at outside linebacker in Brian Flores' defense.

1. Washington Football Team (7-9) - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama

Taylor Heinicke and Alex Smith are both great stories, but neither projects as the long-term answer at quarterback for Washington. Mac Jones went from being Tua's backup to the Davey O'Brien winner and Heisman finalist. He is incredibly accurate, looks comfortable in the pocket and has great touch on his deep ball. He might not be as athletic as the four quarterbacks who went before him, but he can use his legs to extend plays while keeping his eyes downfield. He benefited from a great supporting cast, but he deserves some credit for Alabama's success this year as well.

1. Chicago Bears (8-8) - Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota

Allen Robinson seems headed for an exit this offseason. With Jones off the board, there are no quarterbacks worth taking here, so receiver becomes the next position of focus. Rashod Bateman has the size and playmaking skills to make Bears fans feel a little better about likely losing Robinson. He had a bit of an off 2020 season, opting out, then opting back in and opting out again after five games. He has the size to be a possession receiver, but flashes good run after the catch ability too. Expect whoever is Chicago's quarterback in 2021 to benefit from having him in the offense.

1. Indianapolis Colts (11-5) - Patrick Jones II, EDGE, Pittsburgh

The Colts defense was one of the best in the league this year against the run, but pretty average against the pass. The best way to disrupt an opponent's passing attack is to generate pressure. Patrick Jones II excels in that department. He has 17.5 sacks over the past two seasons. He fits the mold of a 4-3 defensive end and would give the Colts a successor to Justin Houston, who turns 32 later this month. Jones is one of my favorite edge rushers in this class and I think this would be a great fit for him.

1. Tennessee Titans (11-5) - Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa

It took me a bit, but I think I have figured out my pro comp for Zaven Collins. Vikings linebacker Anthony Barr. Both are outside linebackers who can hang in pass coverage but make their biggest impact rushing the passer. Collins is a little bit heavier than Barr, but both fit similar size profiles as well. Tennessee desperately needs a playmaker like that. The Titans had just 19 sacks as a team this season. Collins had 4.5 sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss in eight games. He is the type of disruptive force this defense is lacking.

1. New York Jets via Seattle Seahawks (2-14) - Wyatt Davis, G, Ohio State

After grabbing Zach Wilson, protecting him needs to be the priority. Wyatt Davis is the best interior lineman in this class. He has great size and lots of experience after starting for the past two years. He would provide a nice boost to the interior of this Jets offensive line and some much needed run blocking. Joe Douglas spent a lot on the offensive line in free agency without much success. Davis and Mekhi Becton would give the Jets two great building blocks to rely on as they reshape the unit.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) - Najee Harris, RB, Alabama

Did Pittsburgh throw it more than anyone else strictly by design or because they lost faith in the running game? Hard to know which is true, but either way, the Steelers cannot continue to rely on Ben Roethlisberger throwing the ball 50+ times per game. That's not sustainable. Najee Harris is the top running back in this class and could very well come off the board before this. He is physical, fast and consistent. His blend of quickness and power is pretty impressive. What makes him worthy of a first-round pick is his ability as a pass catcher. Harris caught 65 passes over the past two seasons. A 230-pound back who can get involved in the passing game? That is a special combination.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars via Los Angeles Rams (1-15) - Liam Eichenburg, OT, Notre Dame

Cam Robinson did not have a great 2020 season and it is time that the Jaguars think about moving on from him at left tackle. Protecting Trevor Lawrence is going to be a big priority. Liam Eichenburg is one of the most pro ready tackles in this class. He is incredibly polished and technically sound. His upside is limited by a lack of speed, but he can be the anchor on the left side of the line.

1. Cleveland Browns (11-5) - Jeremiah Owusu-Komaroah, LB, Notre Dame

Cleveland's postseason run is going to continue for a little bit longer, but it is clear where they could use some help on defense. With no clear secondary pick here, the Browns can grab a high-upside linebacker. Jeremiah Owusu-Komaroah is a fantastic cover player with sideline-to-sideline ability. Given the Browns struggles in pass coverage this season, this would be a useful addition to the defense.

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5) - Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan

Tampa Bay is in win-now mode with Tom Brady, but they can afford to go with a raw, high-upside edge rusher as they continue to build depth on defense. Kwity Paye has all the physical tools you hope for in an edge rusher at 6'4" and roughly 270 lbs. He didn't produce much at Michigan with just 11.5 sacks in 28 career games. However, teams will be betting they can help unlock his potential and turn him into a physically dominant edge rusher.

1. Baltimore Ravens (11-5) - Creed Humphrey, C, Oklahoma

Another prospect and team pairing that I really like, Baltimore's offensive line has not been the dominant unit we have become accustomed to watching in recent years. Ronnie Stanley went down after just seven games. Matt Skura had issues snapping the ball at times this season. Plugging in a pro-ready option like Creed Humphrey at center would be a great move for Baltimore. Humphrey has plenty of experience blocking for mobile quarterbacks, playing with Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts in 2018 and 2019 respectively. Blocking for Lamar Jackson should be a seamless transition.

1. New Orleans Saints (12-4) - Chazz Surratt, LB, UNC

The Saints are in for a big offseason as the team figures out its direction after Drew Brees' career ends. New Orleans has been searching for linebacking help for years now. Finding a high-character and dynamic leader like Chazz Surratt at the end of the first round would be a great addition. Surratt is a former quarterback who is still learning the position. However, he has thrived under Mack Brown over the past two seasons starting for UNC. He could take over for Demario Davis, who just turned 32, when he decides to retire.

1. Buffalo Bills (13-3) - Pat Freiermuth, TE, Penn State

Another great fit for both prospect and team here. Buffalo could use an upgrade at tight end. What makes this such a great fit is Pat Freiermuth's ability as both a blocker and inline receiver. He is not the same type of receiving threat as someone like Kyle Pitts, but he is a well-rounded player that fills a huge need. Giving Josh Allen an elite tight end to work with is only going to elevate his game further.

1. Green Bay Packers (13-3) - Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern

There is a time and place to grab a receiver, but that is probably later in the draft. Green Bay has David Bahktiari locked up for a while, but he suffered a major injury and Bryan Bulaga left last offseason. Suddenly, this once stout offensive line is starting to deteriorate. Letting Rashawn Slater start his career at right tackle could be great for his development. He has a long way to go when it comes to hand usage and has some flaws in his pass blocking technique, but he shows flashes of being a punishing blocker. Investing in protecting Aaron Rodgers, or eventually Jordan Love, is a good plan.

1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-2) - Trey Smith, OL, Tennessee

Kansas City has not looked quite as sharp over the final few weeks of the season. Part of that has been inconsistent offensive line play. Andrew Wylie has struggled and could be in danger of being replaced in 2021. Trey Smith is a physical specimen at 6'6", 330 lbs. He started his career at tackle before kicking inside to guard. He played really well for Tennessee in 2020 and could be in line to start on Day 1. Worst-case scenario, he provides some crucial depth for the defending champs at either guard or tackle spot.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-15) - Carlos Basham Jr., DL, Wake Forest

With two exciting edge rushers in Josh Allen and K'Lavon Chaisson, Jacksonville could use an upgrade along the inside of the defensive line. Carlos Basham Jr. is a bit of a tweener, playing snaps at defensive end and defensive tackle. That versatility would be valuable to a Jaguars defense that was one of the worst in football this past year.

1. New York Jets (2-14) - Joseph Ossai, EDGE, Texas

New York is in desperate need of some edge rushing help. Ranking in the bottom third in sacks for what feels like the 10th year in a row has to end at some point for the Jets to turn things around. Joseph Ossai is an intriguing prospect, having played more of an off-ball linebacker role prior to the 2020 season. However, he showed enough promise as an edge rusher for the Jets to add him here.

1. Atlanta Falcons (4-12) - Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Miami

Atlanta continues its search for an edge rusher. After spending several premium picks and some cap space in recent years, this could be the end of the line. Jaelan Phillips flashed tons of speed and potential to produce at the NFL level in his one year at Miami. The Falcons would be banking on that being a sign of things to come and not a one season wonder.

1. Miami Dolphins via Houston Texans (10-6) - Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State

Miami finally grabs the receiver fans have been waiting for. Chris Olave made a huge impact on this Ohio State offense this year. He has good size to compete for pass downfield and has shown flashes of high-level route runner. He might need to bulk up a little bit to survive in the NFL.

1. Philadelphia Eagles (4-11-1) - Andre Cisco, S, Syracuse

The direction of this Eagles defense is in flux with Doug Pederson fired and Jim Schwartz taking a year away from football. There is no question that the pass defense needs a boost though. Andre Cisco is a centerfield safety with great ball skills. He had 12 interceptions in his first two seasons before slogging through an injury-riddled 2020. He would help Philly deal with the big plays that plagued the secondary all season long.

1. Cincinnati Bengals (4-11-1) - Daviyon Nixon, DL, Iowa

Carlos Dunlap is gone. Geno Atkins turns 33 in March. Cincinnati could use an infusion of talent along the defensive line. Daviyon Nixon flashed enough upside that the Bengals would be happy to land him in the second round. He moves incredibly well at 305 pounds, but there is room for improvement when it comes to his technique. If he can get that final layer of polish, he could be a force along the interior of the defense.

1. Carolina Panthers (5-11) - Kyle Trask, QB, Florida

Is Teddy Bridgewater the long-term answer at quarterback? It is unclear at this point. Matt Rhule would likely be excited to work with a polished passer like Kyle Trask. He has great accuracy and anticipation. However, he really lacks mobility and does not have the biggest arm. He could be a bit of a project behind Bridgewater.

1. Denver Broncos (6-10) - Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama

Alex Leatherwood has played every position along the offensive line, other than center, in his time at Alabama. In this scenario, I envision him potentially taking over at right tackle after not seeing Ja'Wuan James play much in the past two years. His ability to play left tackle is important too if Garrett Bolles regresses.

1. Detroit Lions (6-10) - Joe Tryon, EDGE, Washington

For a few years, Detroit has been searching for an edge rusher. Joe Tryon has above average play strength and a solid set of pass rushing moves. We didn't get to see him in 2020 because he opted out, but he has room for improvement and the size to play as a 4-3 end or a 3-4 outside linebacker.

1. New York Giants (6-10) - Quincy Roche, EDGE, Miami

The Giants will be disappointed to see Tryon off the board, but Quincy Roche is a nice consolation prize. He did not put up the same eye-popping numbers he did during his time at Temple, but his one year in Miami was productive. New York's defense made huge strides in 2020 under Patrick Graham, but needs some more pass rushing help to take the next step.

1. Cincinnati Bengals via San Francisco 49ers (6-10) - Alijah Vera-Tucker, G, USC

If the Bengals spent every pick in this draft on the offensive line, I don't think anyone would fault them. That's probably unnecessary, but investing another premium pick on an offensive lineman is smart roster building here. Alijah Vera-Tucker brings some experience at both guard and tackle. He is a developing player that should make Joe Burrow's life better when he returns from injury.

1. Dallas Cowboys (6-10) - Jevon Holland, DB, Oregon

Dallas' defense is headed for something of a major rebuild. With a ton of question marks in the secondary, finding a player who can play in multiple roles carries a lot of value. Jevon Holland is disruptive and can line up at either safety spot or play in the slot. The Cowboys just need to find talented players to turn this defense around.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars via Minnesota Vikings (1-15) - Brevin Jordan, TE, Miami

Jacksonville is in desperate need of an upgrade at tight end. Brevin Jordan has not had the fanfare that Kyle Pitts and Pat Freiermuth have, but he plays the position well. He does a lot of the little things right and would give Trevor Lawrence a strong target across the middle.

1. Detroit Lions via New England Patriots (7-9) - Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU

The backend of Detroit's defense needs a lot of work. Trevon Moehrig is a reliable safety option with plenty of range to make plays. He was one of the best players on a solid TCU defense. His biggest area for improvement is keeping proper positioning. Moehrig got burned deep a few times in 2020.

1. Los Angeles Chargers (7-9) - Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida

The Chargers might not bring back Mike Williams. Even if they do, there is room for another playmaker on this squad. Kadarius Toney looked incredible as part of Florida's offensive resurgence this season. He is dynamic in the open field and great at making plays with the ball in his hands. Toney could be uber productive playing with Justin Herbert.

1. Las Vegas Raiders (8-8) - Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia

Keep rebuilding this defense. The Raiders have swung and missed on a lot of corners in recent years, but Eric Stokes could help steady the unit a bit. He has impeccable speed and solid coverage skills. Stokes showed some signs of being a real difference maker with four interceptions in 2020. His stock could rise a lot if he posts a ridiculous time at the combine.

1. Arizona Cardinals (8-8) - Marvin Wilson, DL, Florida State

Marvin Wilson was a potential first-round selection a year ago, but did not have a great senior year after returning to Tallahassee. I think Wilson could bounce back with some better coaching. There was a lot of animosity at Florida State this offseason and it seemed like Wilson's heart was not in it this year. If he can reclaim his 2019 form, this would be a steal for a Cardinals team in need of some help along the defensive line.

1. Miami Dolphins (10-6) - Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson

I have Travis Etienne ranked at No. 14 on my big board, so don't go thinking I hate Etienne. However, NFL teams are continuing to devalue this position to the point where only one running back was selected last year in the first round. This is a great fit for the Clemson running back, who would join an exciting offense. His big-play ability could easily see him go sooner than this.

1. Washington (7-9) - Sage Surratt, WR, Wake Forest

Assuming that Washington does opt for Mac Jones, they are going to need to give him some receivers other than Terry McLaurin to throw to. Sage Surratt sat out the 2020 season, but he was last seen torching secondaries in the ACC. He is a big-play threat with great size and ball skills.

1. Chicago Bears (8-8) - Landon Dickerson, C, Alabama

We won't get to see Landon Dickerson workout at the Senior Bowl or combine this year because he suffered a season-ending injury in the SEC title game. He made a brief cameo at the end of Alabama's championship win, but he might not be ready for the upcoming season. Once he is back to full health though, he could be a steady starter for the Bears. This offense would look a lot better with an improved line and some additional playmakers.

1. Tennessee Titans (11-5) - Jay Tufele, DL, USC

This mostly projecting how Jay Tufele could develop as a prospect. He flashed some interior pass rushing ability in his first two seasons before opting out of the 2020 season. The Titans will take pass rushing help however they can get it at this point.

1. Indianapolis Colts (11-5) - Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU

T.Y. Hilton had a strong second half and Michael Pittman Jr. showed flashes of his potential to be a No. 1 receiver, but Indy needs more receiving options. Parris Campbell has yet to make an impact and Zach Pascal is better off providing depth. Terrace Marshall got overshadowed by Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase last year, but he made some big plays for a much worse LSU offense this year.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) - Dillon Radunz, OT, North Dakota State

Pittsburgh's offensive line struggled a lot between injuries and poor play all season. Dillon Radunz is a bit of an unknown coming out of North Dakota State, but he has some great physical tools and dominated the FCS. He could compete for either tackle spot from Day 1.

1. Seattle Seahawks (11-5) - Jalen Mayfield, OT, Michigan

There is no question the Seahawks need an edge rusher, but Russell Wilson also needs time to make plays. Saturday's loss to the Rams should underline how much the offensive line needs an upgrade. Jalen Mayfield held down the right side of the line for Michigan. He should do the same thing for Seattle, replacing Brandon Shell.

1. Los Angeles Rams (10-6) - Cade Mays, OT, Tennessee

Andrew Whitworth cannot play forever and Jared Goff is not mobile enough to compensate for a bad offensive line. Cade Mays, like his teammate Trey Smith, has featured mostly at guard, but has the size to play at tackle. He has played at every position at some point in his college career at Georgia and Tennessee. His versatility would be hugely valuable even if he does not start right away.

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5) - Jaylen Twyman, DL, Pittsburgh

Building depth along the front seven is pretty much the only clear need this team has, pending any losses in free agency. Jalen Twyman was a disruptive force in 2019 for Pittsburgh. He racked up 10.5 sacks and 12.5 tackles for loss in a dominant season. He will need to measure in well at the combine to answer some questions about his size, but he could provide some pass rushing depth right away.

1. Baltimore Ravens (11-5) - Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC

There is no question the Ravens need another receiver to add to this offense. Amon-Ra St. Brown has the agility and route tree to fit well as a possession receiver in this offense. He can get open in small spaces and has shown the ability to stretch the field as well.

1. Cleveland Browns (11-5) - Israel Mukuamu, CB, South Carolina

I'm not totally sure where Israel Mukuamu fits at the next level. He has played both safety and outside corner in his time at South Carolina. He is huge at 6'4" and shows flashes of being a lockdown corner. He is a step slow in the speed department, but his versatility would be extremely useful for a Browns secondary that has struggled to keep players healthy.

1. New Orleans Saints (12-4) - Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue

Ronadale Moore has looked like a human joystick when at full strength. That type of playmaking could be a huge boost to the Saints offense. It is not totally clear what this team will look like without Drew Brees, but New Orleans has needed a long-term solution across from Michael Thomas for a few years. Moore could be a top candidate if his medicals check out.

1. Buffalo Bills (13-3) - Chris Rumph II, EDGE, Duke

Buffalo's defense took a step back in 2020 after a dominant 2019 season. The Bills can look to reclaim their 2019 form with a couple of fresh faces in the front seven. Chris Rumph II had a great career with Duke, posting 14.5 sacks and 25 tackles for loss over his final two seasons.

1. Green Bay Packers (13-3) - Seth Williams, WR, Auburn

Seth Williams' skill set is a bit more limited than some of the receivers that have gone before him, but what he does, he does very well. He has the size at 6'3" to make plays down the field in traffic. Most importantly, he has good hands, which is something Green Bay desperately needs. The Packers had one of the highest drop percentages in the league this year.

1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-2) - Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri

Kansas City can stay close to home with this pick. Nick Bolton was a huge factor in Missouri's surprising season. He was one of the leaders of the Mizzou defense and made some impact plays with eight tackles for loss this season. Bolton would compete for a starting spot on a defense in need of some improvement in the linebacking corp.
https://aftermathsports.com/2021/01/12/2021-nfl-mock-draft-49ers-trade-up-for-fields-while-jones-lands-in-washington-after-cfp-final/

A post from last night combined with Dan Campbell getting me all jacked up on red bull and mountain dew got my creative juices flowing so figured I would start my offseason series early. This year to save me from spending forever on one massive post I'm breaking it into bite size pieces with a master post at the end. Hopefully you like this format, always appreciate the feedback.
First up, I've ranked the Lions top 10 cap casualties. Agreed or disagree? throw it in the comments.

Already Gone

1) Desmond Trufant (6 million saved): This one is the biggest no brainer. Trufant was hurt a substantial amount of the season and while no CB really looked great in the Lions scheme, you can't afford to not look great and be making 12.5 million dollars a year. Additionally Detroit simply has to see what they have in Oruwariye and Okudah and both for better or worse must be every down starters to start next year to determine that. The Lions getting 6 million dollars of cap back is also a healthy savings for a cap strapped team. I see no way Trufant is back with the Lions next season.
2) Jesse James (Post June 1, 5 million saved): The second of two absolute no brainer cuts on this list. In two seasons with the Lions James has 271 yards receiving, 2 TD's, and a mediocre at best PFF rating. and for that production the Lions are about to give James close to $6.5 million against the cap, good for the 8th highest hit on the team or almost $1 million more then the starter Hock. Now part of that isn't his fault due to the Lions weird decision to pick him up on this contract in free agency and then draft Hock but his blocking hasn't even been that good, he's not utilized extensively in the offence and you simply can't justify paying your TE2 that much money. As a Post June 1 Cut you only have just under $1.5 million in dead cap this year on his deal which makes him an easy release. While this pushes just under $3 million of dead cap to 2022, we will be in a much better position then to deal with that dead cap and it opens more space in the short term. James is another guy I see with no path to the Lions next year.

In the Hot Seat

3) Justin Coleman (Post June 1, 9 million saved): Coleman is also likely gone but the first guy on the list but I see with an outside path of sticking around. Again he's in a difficult position because no corner was going to look great in Patricia's system, but also he was played outside his standard slot position and has flashed some good moments, largely being a relatively consistent presence when healthy last year. The real question is whether that's good enough to justify an $11 million price tag good for the team's 5th highest cap hit? There's also the complicating factor that should you make him a post June 1 cut for the full $9 million relief this year you're still pushing over $4 million in dead cap to 2022. Then you have to factor in that you still have to find a good slot corner to replace him on a defence that already has a number of holes. End of the day I still think money saved wins out and he's out the door but this will be worth keeping an eye on as the offseason progresses.
4) Danny Shelton (4 million saved): Another guy that is likely gone but has an off chance at sticking around. Shelton was all around meh last year. Slow start, picked up toward the middle of the year, then knocked out by an injury. At a $5.25 million hit I just don't see the value there in keeping him around. Another notable factor in that is John Penisini very well might have just pushed him off the roster with his effort and tenacity down the stretch. I think he's our starting nose next year full stop and getting $4 million off the books to clear the way for that to happen is a nice incentive. Only reason Shelton could stick around would be to not poke more holes in an already thin interior but out of the two DL guys on this list I think he's the most likely player to go.
5) Nick Williams (4.7 million saved): And here's that other guy. Nick Williams intrigued me when we picked him up as a guy that could do the 2 gapping Patricia liked while also offering a little 3 tech pass rush juice to spice things up. Patricia predictably however never spiced things up and Williams was a rotational non factor almost all year. Now I think he might be worth a gamble keeping around for one year as a guy that in a new scheme that might really come into his own and thrive. That said at a $5.7 million hit he's not making gamble type money, especially with only $1 million in potential dead cap. I truly think Williams is an ideal candidate for a salary reduction to stick around on a one year prove it but because that's too far removed from this exercise I've put him in the likely cut category until further notice.
6) Chase Daniel (Post June 1, 3 million saved): I almost put this guy in the third tier but convinced myself this is where he belongs. Daniel was brought in to be a high end competent backup in the event that Stafford went down and we needed to pull out a tight game. He then proceeded to be as helpful as a wet fart almost every time he was called into action. I would rather pay vet min for a UDFA to see what happens if we aren't getting game manager level backup quality behind Stafford and will gladly eat the $2.3 million

Worth Consideration

7) Joe Dahl (2.9 million saved): I've had a borderline unhealthy dislike of Joe Dahl for some time now. Despite being not starter quality he continues to get chances as a starter and put into the lineup only to get regularly exposed on a game by game basis. He was a decent day three find and a pretty good backup to throw in off the bench, thats it. To save the Lions from themselves and continuing to throw this guy on in a starting role in a third staff I say release him now and save basically his entire contract against the cap. The downside to this is that you're opening a hole in your o line that you would now have to fill, however I would rather seen Stenberg get a chance after a year of seasoning and you could always bring in a significantly cheaper vet in this market to compete for the RG job and give you just as much as Dahl can.
8) Christian Jones (Post June 1, 3.6 million saved): Christian Jones is absolutely over paid and is not at all in the form of a modern NFL LB. That said upon further consideration is he really the worst guy to have on your roster? The Lions have little to nothing at LB right now and at very least Jones gives you some form of consistency out there as well as an ability to do a number of different things at a few different spots. At the same time can you really afford to pay a depth linebacker $4.75 million against the cap? especially when the Lions absolutely intend on getting smaller faster and better in coverage at the LB position? all things he is absolutely not?. You can tell I've gone back and forth on this but I think the final conclusion is that he's out the door.
9) Geronimo Allison (1 million saved): A lot of people forgot Geronimo was even on the roster after he opted out due to COVID before the season. Allison was almost certainly a fringe roster guy anyways when the Lions brought him in and should only ever be that anyways. To count that player in your top 53 contracts after he's taken a year off football? no thanks. Cut Allison now and replace him at camp with a UDFA or late round rookie hungry to make a practice squad spot.
10) Will Harris (Post June 1, 900k saved): This move would honestly surprise me and is really just here to round out the list. Harris has been simply awful the vast majority of his time in Detroit and has been a true bust of a third round pick. To cut him before camp though entering only his third season just to save 900K though? I don't see how that return to not even check and see if he could succeed in a different scheme with a secondary guru as your new DC might turn him around. Maybe the Lions really want a clean slate but I think he at least gets a shot at training camp before maybe being a camp cut that heads to somebody's practice squad.

Prediction

If I were to bet, I see all of these guys getting cut with the exception of Will Harris and Nick Williams who restructures to stick around at a salary of $2.75 million. In sum that would open up roughly $37.5 million dollars in cap space, leaving the Lions upwards of $40 million total to play with this offseason.

Hi. My name is Peter. I'm not yet a recovering gambling addict, but it's by far the biggest goal I have in my life. Just to mention, I also have a goal to be accepted into a university in Finland. Here is a the complete story about my gambling addiction:
I come from quite a wealthy and loving family. I consider myself considerably intelligent. I was performing well at school and I was extremely happy all the time. Until the age of 17 I hadn't shown any kind of interest towards gambling. I played football and enjoyed watching it with my dad. One day he asked me if I wanted to put a bet on a Champions league game where Barcelona played against Roma (Spring 2019). That was my first introduction to gambling. We started to place some bets, very irregulary, but I kinda started to like it more and more. By the age of 18 I moved away from my parents to live with my girlfriend and the betting stopped (Fall 2019). I heard and read some news articles about Finnish people going into debt spiral because of gambling away thousands and even tens of thousands of euros. I remember how I despised them and always thought that how could anyone be so stupid.
Half a year later (May 2020) I was working as a co-driver in a local electronics store. I spent most of my working days with my coworker Alex. One day we started to discuss about gambling and Alex told me that he had a serious gambling addiction, but was now recovering from it. He told me a story about how he lost 2k in day. No one close to me had never talked about their own gambling addiction, but when I finally met a friend who had one, the only thing that came to my mind was just like before: "How can someone be so stupid?".
The same year my military service started (September 2020). There I started to place some little bets with my military friends and I started to like betting again. The bets were from 1 to 5€ and I remember winning 300€ and feeling like a champion. I had 5k on my savings account and I had never been happier in my life. One weekend (October 2020) when I was on a break from military we went drinking with my girlfriend and our friends out of city. Four of us had a hotel room there and I still don't know the reason why I did it, but I placed a 500€ on roulette on red color. Remember, I had never placed a bet more than 5€ , not to mention 500€. I won that bet. I continued. I cashed out 4,5k just from playing roulette and switching colors. I felt like the biggest champion in the world. It was 5am and everyone was asleep so I woke everyone up and told them what I had just won. Even though it was 5am and I had woken them up while they were still a bit drunk and obviously not feeling that well, they were extremely happy for me, for real. The following morning I woke up, I had to check my bank account just to make sure it wasn't a dream and there it was, a 4,5k withdrawal from Unibet. The same day I also told my parents that I had just won 4,5k, and they told me not to gamble ever again. On Monday I went back to military service and I listened to their words and never gambled again. For the next two weeks.
The next vacation came. I had 9,5k in my savings. Somehow I got a urge to climb my balance up to 10k and when I'd get to that, I'd completely stop gambling. I placed one bet. I placed another bet. I placed another bet. I soon noticed that I had not only gambled all my winnings away but also my whole balance. I had literally zero euros in my bank account. I didn't even realise it that night but the following morning I remember waking up checking my bank account just to make sure it wasn't dream (again). I felt like my world collapsed. I had three months left of my compulsory military service and my salary was like 400€/month. Every morning I woke up I had the same feeling, I felt like my world had collapsed. I told my military friends about what had happened and they pretty much just laughed at me and had exactly the same thought as I had had: "How can anyone be so stupid?". I couldn't tell any of my real friends or my family, because I felt humiliated. When my military salary came I tried to climb back up to 10k. Of course it was near impossible with 400€, so I lost them all. I continued like that for the rest of the military service. I had never took a loan from any of my friends or any other lender and that was the only good thing that I could think about that time. I have always had had a bad habit for lying and this significantly increased it. I've always been quite good at lying so my lies were believed.
Then I got off from military service (December 2020). I had got a new job as a salesman. My first month wasn't great and I only got like 800€. I once again tried to climb back up to 10k. I immediately lost it. Taking a loan came to my mind. I did some research and a local bank offered me a 4k loan which I took. I lost it that same night. I felt like my world collapsed even further. I sta I was completely lost and the only solution was to gather myself and finally tell my parents and also my girlfriend that I have a serious gambling addiction. They were extremely understanding and thanked me for daring to tell them. My parents lend me 500€ for me to survive the following month and I promised them that I'd never gamble again. Just like I promised them four months ago.
Now here I am with 7k in debt and zero euros in my bank account. I betrayed my promise again. Today I told my parents and my girlfriend about my current situation with gambling and after all this, they still managed to be extremely supportive. I've always been a positive person and I still tend to be. I have a loving family and a girlfriend, I have many close friends, I got accepted into a business university, I'm healthy, I'm not in a financial distress because I know that my parents can lend me money if I really do need it and I have a full-time job. I'm in a better situation than many many other people. I just can't find the right solution for myself to stop gambling. And I really do want to do so. I feel like I've thrown away the latest four months of my life, and I don't want to lose a single day anymore. I want to stop the constant lying and made up excuses for justifying my gambling, my mood swings and reckless behavior. I want to continue living my life as such a happy young man as I was last summer and before that.
Sorry for the long post, but getting the full story this off my chest felt awesome.