Deshaun Watson's trade value and destinations, plus what the Houston Texans do next
Jeremy FowlerESPN Staff Writer
The potential -- inevitable? -- Deshaun Watson breakup with the Houston Texans is running its natural course, with four stages cleared and more coming: Stage 1: Watson's unhappiness over ownership decisions goes public. Stage 2: Watson doesn't return phone calls from the Texans. Stage 3: An Adam Schefter tweet reminds us that, yes, this is real. Stage 4: Watson and his marketing agent like an Instagram account showcasing a New York Daily News cover saying the New York Jets must do "WATever it Takes" to get Watson in a trade. Not everyone around the league is convinced the Texans will trade Watson. But we know how these things usually go. And we know the next stages: Stage 5: Houston will "listen" to offers, but isn't actively trading Watson. Stage 6: OK, so now they are initiating trade talks. Stage 7: Teams that really want him try to downplay his importance by pumping up the quarterbacks they already have, but don't like as much. This is the NFL's circle of life, and short of new GM Nick Caserio going full John Cusack with the boombox outside of Watson's window, a trade feels very possible. This is wild to say about a top-five quarterback in his prime. Which is also why the Texans can, will and should try everything possible to reconcile this. But Watson clearly is frustrated by the Texans' business dealings, and he's showing the power he wields without saying a word. Embattled executive Jack Easterby, a former chaplain and character coach, is fighting for his job, influencing decision-making at the top and rankling a faction of the locker room with a disingenuous mix of faith and football, according to investigative work by Sports Illustrated. Owner Cal McNair said he would involve Watson in the process of hiring a general manager and head coach, but swiftly hired Caserio, with whom Easterby has a relationship from his days in New England. This usurped Watson's desire for a culture change, and a source close to Watson told ESPN's Chris Mortensen that firing Easterby would not resolve the issue, saying that "Cal McNair would have to fire Cal McNair." This is a massive story that deserves treatment from all angles, setting the stage for perhaps the biggest blockbuster deal since the Minnesota Vikings traded away eight draft picks, including three first-round selections, five veteran players and more to acquire Herschel Walker in 1989. After several talks with NFL personnel, here's what to expect from the Watson saga, the teams people in the league are talking about as best fits, and why it could take an unprecedented haul to get the 25-year-old out of Houston.
What does Watson's contract look like?
In September, Watson signed a four-year, $156 million extension with a $27 million signing bonus, an average annual payout of $39 million and $73 million guaranteed.
Watson had two years left on a rookie deal that included a fifth-year option, so the Texans worked that remaining money into the deal for a total haul of around $180 million over six years, expiring after the 2025 season. The Texans had an offseason to forget. They foolishly traded away DeAndre Hopkins for Day 2 draft capital. They were reeling and needed a move to instill confidence and spin the franchise forward. Signing Watson to the second-richest contract in NFL history behind Patrick Mahomes' 10-year, $450 million deal was an easy call.
Why is the deal friendly to prospective teams?
Because the Texans must keep the signing bonus on their salary cap, which means Watson's payout and salary cap on a new team would be $10.54 million in 2021, a serious bargain for any quarterback, let alone a top-five passer. The next two years are heavier lifts: $35 million in 2022, all base salary, and $37 million in 2023, including a $20 million salary and a $17 million roster bonus. So a team acquiring Watson would pay $45.5 million over the next two years and $82.5 million over three years. For comparison, that's roughly the same amount the Eagles are scheduled to pay Carson Wentz (three years, $81.9 million) over the same span. "A bargain," said an NFL salary-cap executive. "I bet many teams would do that in a heartbeat." Watson's $32 million base salaries in 2024 and 2025 are not guaranteed, so most teams would focus on the three-year window with Watson.
Can Watson really pick his new team based on a no-trade clause?
Sort of. Watson's contract states that the Texans are not permitted to trade Watson unless the player gives the team written consent to do so. So, in the realest sense, Watson has to sign off on a deal. If the Texans have a deal lined up with Team X and Watson doesn't want that team, he can withhold that consent.
Max, Stephen A. slam Texans for situation with Deshaun Watson
Max Kellerman and Stephen A. Smith break down how the Texans have fractured the relationship with Deshaun Watson, their franchise quarterback.
If this process goes far enough, the Texans and Watson's agent, David Mulugheta, can discuss teams that would generate approval from Watson, so it's a nonissue once a trade gets close. While the no-trade clause is leverage in the typical sense, Watson also has something else on his side. "He's the franchise QB that speaks on behalf of a frustrated locker room," an NFC exec said. "If he's not happy, those guys in the locker room will follow him. And that can have a lasting impact on your entire team's performance in 2021."
What does all that mean for the Texans' options?
If a trade happens, it means the Texans would have paid $29.4 million to Watson for the 2020 season, then taken on $21.6 million in dead salary cap for trading away a generational player -- unless they can make a case through NFL's management council that the new team should absorb some of the signing bonus, which doesn't often happen. No draft haul will ease that pain. "I've talked to GMs who say why would you give away a player who's so talented and young and such a building block?" an NFL personnel man said. "Especially as you just paid him $27 million a few months ago." Caserio looms large here. What's clear is Watson didn't like the process by which the new GM landed the Texans' job; this implies he's not exactly thrilled by the hire, though his problems seem directed at the people doing the hiring. But several people in the league say the Watson drama has camouflaged the home run hire Houston just made. Caserio was a key component to New England's run and is well-respected around the league. He also embodies the Patriot Way, which means he'll move in calculated silence. "The one thing I know about Nick is he'll do what's best for the Texans -- if that means Watson stays, he'll stand firm on that," an AFC personnel man said. "I believe that." The Texans' leverage is simple: Players show up when the money is in jeopardy. An extended absence from the team could eventually default Watson's contract, which puts paying back signing-bonus money on the table. But that would ignite an already-wounded locker room. Good luck with that. "I'd be hard-pressed to believe they want to get out of this deal," an NFC exec said. "Something doesn't add up."
How does the NFL view Watson as a player?
Watson was the No. 4 quarterback in our top 10 series ranking players at each position with input from more than 50 NFL coaches, execs and scouts, narrowly defeating Drew Brees with toughness and dynamic playmaking. Teams laud Watson's special playmaking despite a subpar offensive line for the better part of his four seasons in Houston. Clutch performances are a trademark for Watson, whose 10 game-winning drives in his first three seasons were the most of any NFL quarterback from 2017 to '19. Comebacks were hard to find during the Texans' 4-12 season in 2020, but Watson didn't hurt his stock with a career-high 112.4 passer rating along with 4,823 yards, 33 touchdown passes and seven interceptions, completing 70.2% of his passes. He was top five in several categories: yards per attempt (second, 8.3), Total QBR (fourth, 69.9), percentage of throws that result in a first down (second, 39.9%), expected points added as a rusher among QBs (second, +69.0) and completion percentage above expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats (fourth, 64.5%). Still, NFL personnel evaluators maintain Watson isn't the easiest player to assess because he has taken a jarring 174 sacks, isn't considered elite with pocket maneuvering and, in the eyes of one NFL coordinator, could use more offensive structure and tough coaching.
Watson takes sacks on 8.3% of his dropbacks, the most of any NFL player with 20 or more games played. Only Russell Wilson has more sacks since 2017, during which the Texans' offensive line ranked 13th in pass block win rate, indicating you can't totally blame blocking for the sack numbers. Watson has a 3.0% interception rate when his team has the lead, which is fifth worst in the league. "Deshaun can continue to improve as a quarterback, which is probably the most exciting thing about him," an NFC exec said. "He's a high-level guy with all the tools and he's still got nuances that he can master, and he seems to be chipping away at those each year." Watson is hardly a slam dunk to earn the No. 4 spot in this year's rankings, though, with Josh Allen coming on in a big way.
What will Watson's trade value be?
All those numbers stress how unprecedented a quarterback of this stature being potentially available really is. Since 2000, eight veteran NFL players were traded for multiple first-round picks. The only quarterback on that list is Jay Cutler, who went from the Broncos to the Bears in 2009 in exchange for Kyle Orton, back-to-back firsts and a third-round pick. Several of these deals came recently. In 2019, the Los Angeles Rams and Texans gave up two firsts for cornerback Jalen Ramsey and tackle Laremy Tunsil, respectively. That 2021 pick from Houston gives Miami the No. 3 overall selection, thanks to a deal former coach Bill O'Brien executed before his 2020 firing. Last offseason, the Seattle Seahawks sent two firsts to the Jets for safety Jamal Adams. Then there's the Robert Griffin III trade in 2012, with the Washington Football Team giving the Rams two future first-round picks for the right to move from No. 6 to No. 2 overall in that draft.
Technically, no player since Herschel Walker has garnered three first-rounders. That would definitely change with Watson, several evaluators say. "Oh yeah -- he's worth at least that," one NFC exec said. "The haul would be pretty insane." NFL front-office personnel are unanimous in this, with several saying additional draft capital might be necessary. It largely depends where the picks in the first round might fall. Many pointed out that if Adams, Ramsey and Tunsil garnered two firsts, Watson should get far more because of the importance of the quarterback position.
When could Watson be dealt?
Trades can't be executed until March 17, the first day of the new league year, but teams can agree in principle to a deal well before then. A hard deadline might be April 29, the first day of the draft. It makes little sense to do it after, since any pact would likely need to include a first-round pick this year. Perhaps the Texans could play hardball and push this through the offseason, knowing the draft capital will be there for future years. Maybe Caserio doesn't like the quarterbacks in this year's draft. That also gives Watson more time to change his mind. But evaluators agree that pre-draft is the time to do it.
What are the potential destinations for Watson?
Acquiring Watson might require not only three first-rounders, but at least one very high pick, multiple evaluators say. That's why those same evaluators consistently point to two teams: the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins. Both teams have two things in this year's draft that others don't: a top-three pick, and multiple firsts. New York has the second overall pick and the 23rd pick, acquired in the Adams trade. Miami selects third and 18th overall. Working with these two teams gives Houston the chance to draft Watson's replacement or take on their respective current starters, Sam Darnold or Tua Tagovailoa, if they want one of them. "If Houston does a deal with one of them, I bet they go after both firsts in this cycle, because that immediately helps them get better in a year they have limited capital," said an AFC personnel man, referring to Houston's lack of picks in the first two rounds this year. "In future years, you don't know what those picks are going to be." Both teams easily could absorb Watson's contract. The Jets' $69,385,570 in projected cap space is enough for Watson and some free-agent wide receivers to join him. The Dolphins have $24,876,158 in space -- and no state income tax, which Watson has gotten used to playing in Texas. The Texans could ask teams to throw in star or ascending players to sweeten the deal. The Jets' best asset might be left tackle Mekhi Becton, but GM Joe Douglas probably won't want to part with his first draft pick. Becton looks like a future All-Pro. The Dolphins have interceptions leader Xavien Howard and intriguing young pass-rushers, for starters.
Multiple execs estimate anywhere from 10-15 teams would at least consider giving up major draft capital to get Watson. There are simply too many QB-starved teams out there. The Carolina Panthers have been linked to Watson if he were to become available, and it's true that they see Watson as a player worth serious draft capital. That doesn't mean they would go all the way. But they are a team to watch. They don't appear completely sold on Teddy Bridgewater and are poised to select a quarterback high in April's draft. They have $14.3 million in cap space, the eighth overall pick and are in the process of getting younger. Watson, a Georgia native, would be getting back to the Southeast. Bridgewater's three-year, $63 million contract signed last year isn't crippling for Carolina long term. His $17 million salary is guaranteed for this year, but the team could actually save $1 million in cap space by designating Bridgewater a post-June 1 release, according to ESPN's Roster Management System. In 2022, they can walk away with $21 million in cap savings. Don't laugh, but another sleeper team that a few NFL people have mentioned as a potential fit is the Chicago Bears. There are people in that building who are very high on Watson and they could be looking for a reboot at the position as Mitchell Trubisky's contract expires. GM Ryan Pace could essentially get a mulligan on the 2017 draft. Pace might not have favored Watson then, but he has more, uh, evidence now. Their $10.2 million cap deficit is a stumbling block, but cutting or restructuring veteran contracts can help. Releasing tight end Jimmy Graham and guard Bobby Massie takes care of $13 million in space. The Bears pick 20th in the draft and might have to throw in an extra Day 2 pick to compensate for the lack of high standing. Whatever it takes to get Chicago's first 4,000-yard passer in franchise history. And for as bad as the NFC East was this year, there's an improving team with $35.4 million in cap space and tons of intriguing young players who could make a move: the Washington Football Team. "I think they will be involved in the QB sweepstakes in a big way," an NFC exec said. "They know they are close."
Will a trade really happen?
Team officials are torn on this, because trading him makes little sense logistically, but the story isn't going away. "He just signed his deal, what, five months ago," one AFC exec said. "You've got to think they had plans to stay together long term when they did this. I know things have changed but if the right people get on the phone and cooler heads prevail, maybe they can squash all this." The hiring of the coach will be significant. Even if Watson isn't returning calls, the Texans know the QB favors Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy for the job. Bieniemy virtually interviewed with the team Monday and is considered a legitimate candidate.
One NFL personnel exec brought up a concern over giving up so much draft capital and absorbing the financial commitment for a player who appears to be forcing a trade. What if the player turns around and does the same to you, he asked? And he wonders if that would give enough teams pause to halt a deal. But Watson might have documented behind-the-scenes stories that illustrate an even deeper Texans problem than expected. And Watson, by all accounts, has been a high-character guy throughout his football career. "It seems like he might just be fed up," an AFC personnel evaluator said. "And if he's willing to dig in on it, there might be no coming back and the team figures it has to do a deal when draft capital is so precious in today's game."

Betting arbitrage strategies and tips

Avoid arbs over 10% profit.

Often arbitrage opportunities over 10% profit are either an apparent mistake by the sportsbook or a match far out in the future. In both cases placing bets on the opportunity may tip sportsbooks off that you may be arbing.

Don’t use unsafe links from betting arbitrage websites.

When coming from a betting arbitrage site, make sure not to click any unsafe links to a sportsbook. If a sportsbook notices you coming from an arbitrage website, it is pretty obvious what you’re trying to do. If you use links from an arbitrage website to a sportsbook, make sure they are safe non-referring links.

Avoid betting on weird markets.

It’s best to stick to the most popular sports. In the U.S., this would be football, baseball, basketball, and hockey. Placing bets on obscure events like Korean ping pong is going to seem strange to the sportsbooks.

Open both sportsbook websites side by side to reduce the time placing bets.

As arbing opportunities don’t always last an extended amount of time, it is important to place your bets as quickly and as accurately as possible. Pulling up two tabs to each sportsbook and quickly double-checking the match and the odds will ensure you don’t make any mistakes that will cost you.

Round your arbitrage bets depending on your bet size.

When stakes are calculated for arbitrage bets, technically to obtain the full profit possible, the bets would be made to the nearest penny. Ordinary bettors are not placing bets down to the penny. Depending on the size of your bankroll, you will want to hedge your bets to the nearest $1, $5, $10, $50, etc.

Start with small stakes.

Until you figure out the process that works best for you, it is best to start with small stakes. This way, while you are figuring out the best way for you to place bets or the strategy you are pursuing, you can do so without making mistakes.

Double-check the odds are the same.

Odds can change very fast. In some cases, faster than your arbitrage software can pick it up. Before placing your arbitrage bets, make sure that the odds from your research or arbitrage service match up with those on the sportsbooks’ websites.

Double-check that you are betting on the correct event.

Think about matches that are within the same division. For example, in the NFL, each team in the same division will play each other twice. Make sure the date, game, and odds match up on the sportsbooks and the arbitrage service. This way you can be sure that you are placing the bets on the correct match and not one featuring the same teams in the future.

Place “mug bets” occasionally.

A “mug bet” is basically a dummy bet to break up arbitrage bets. By placing these mug bets, it may appear that you are simply an average bettor that gets lucky sometimes. When placing these mug bets, only use 1-2% of your bankroll. Please don’t get carried away with mug bets, or they may eat away at your bankroll.

Limit deposits and withdrawals on sportsbook websites.

Arbitrage bettors need to move around their funds often to take advantage of arbitrage opportunities as they arise. To minimize the need to withdraw and deposit funds, stick to a lower number of bookmakers.

Place an occasional parlay.

According to a UNLV Center for Gaming Research study from 1992 to 2019, Nevada sportsbooks won $0.30 for every $1 placed on parlays compared to just $0.05 for $1 spent on regular bets.
Many beginner bettors bet with their hearts and not their heads when it comes to placing parlay bets. They hear stories like “Man turns $300 to $85,000 on eight-leg parlay”. If you don’t know what a parlay is, it’s basically multiple bets wrapped into one. If one of the bets loses, then the entire parlay is lost. To win the parlay, all of the individual bets must be won within the parlay. These bets have high payouts for a reason; not many people win. By placing the occasional parlay, you can look more like one of these beginner bettors. Just don’t get carried away!

Keep track of your winnings to compare performance at different sportsbooks.

One of the best ways to stay under the radar with sportsbooks and understand your performance is to keep track of your bets. Create a spreadsheet grouping the bets by sportsbook. If one sportsbook has a much higher win rate or lifetime winnings than the others, it may be time to place some mug bets or parlays to even the score.

Spread your bets around to different sportsbooks.

Following up with the track your performance tip, it is important to spread your bets around. If you have a higher number of arbitrage bets with some sportsbooks than others, try to even this out to keep a low profile.

Check stake limits to ensure you can place your arbitrage bets.

You don’t want to place bets on one sportsbook to find out that you can’t place the other half of the arb on the other sportsbook because the stake limit is too low. Ensure you know your stake limits (max bet) with each sportsbook, so you keep your bets within what’s possible when using an arbing calculator.

Avoid long term arbs.

Long term arbs that are greater than a week are usually not the best choice. The odds for these matches are more so guesses, especially when the match is far in the future. If you keep profiting off of these odds, it seems suspicious. Stick to arbs where the match occurs in less than a week.

Avoid arbitrage betting to the max bet limit.

Seeing that there are nearly risk-free profits when it comes to arbitrage betting, it makes sense to go all-in on every bet, right? Not exactly. When you win big it puts more eyes on you. When you win big over and over again, you will get noticed, and sportsbooks will limit how much you can bet. Go for about 60-75% of the max bet limit at most if you have the funds to do so.

Try and focus on smaller sportsbooks.

The more established and higher-earning the sportsbook, the better their anti-arbitrage systems are likely to be. It’s not a bad idea to try and focus on the smaller sportsbooks when possible. Regarding arbitrage betting in the U.S., there may be a period of time when arbitrage betting goes by relatively unnoticed compared to other international markets. This is due to sports betting being new in the U.S., and these new sportsbooks do not have any complex systems in place to detect betting arbitrage.

Don’t place bets on arbitrage opportunities as soon as they appear.

Placing bets on arbitrage opportunities as soon as they appear could come off as a little suspicious. The reason being regular bettors are generally not attentive enough to place bets instantly once the odds change.

Stick to 1-3 sports.

Most regular bettors and those that watch sports in general only follow 1-3 sports. If your betting on many more than three sports at a time, it may look suspicious.

Look like a typical bettor.

Overall your strategy should make you look as normal of a bettor as possible. The more you deviate outside of what you think a typical bettor would do, the higher chance of your account being noticed. Act normally, and you can arbitrage successfully while making a profit.
If you are interested, you can learn more here.
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What I am really interested in is if you guys know of any other strategies?
Anything in the thread may help others!

Value of a Half Point and Getting the Best Number
It's crazy to think we've already watched 8 weeks of NCAAF and 7 weeks of the NFL season, so this may seem late, but I’d like to offer you a refresher on conditional probabilities and how they can be used in betting football.
At its core, sports betting is about estimating the probability of an event occurring. To find value, you then compare your estimate with the implied probability of the payout that is offered from a sportsbook. For example, if you estimate the probability of Notre Dame covering the spread against Michigan to be 55.0%, it’s probably worth a bet if you can get -110 odds on Notre Dame (52.4% breakeven probability).
Conditional Probabilities
However, what is often oversimplified is the fact that your estimate is actually a conditional probability. Your estimate of 55.0% probability of Notre Dame covering is conditional on the fact that 1) the teams that are playing are Notre Dame and Michigan (duh), 2) that Notre Dame is a 3.5-point underdog, and 3) whatever else is an input into your model. If Notre Dame were a 1.0-point underdog instead, which is where the current spread is, your probability would be different. This is what makes totals and spreads incrementally harder to model than money lines. Betting a money line, you only need to consider the odds (set by a sportsbook) and the probability of the team winning. Betting the spread, however, requires you to account for the odds and the probability of a team covering the spread, both of which (the odds and the spread) are set by the sportsbook.
To complicate things further, in football, scoring is usually done in increments of 3 and 7. This causes football scores to fall on certain stores much more frequently than others, resulting in a unique distribution of the margin of victory. You likely have heard of the phrase “key numbers” (such as 3, 7, 10, 14 and 21) which are the most frequent margins of victory in NCAA football, accounting for almost 30% of outcomes over the last five seasons. Below, we’ve displayed the frequency of occurrence of the 10 most frequent outcomes in NCAA football, representing almost half of games played.
https://imgur.com/a/f7mbksF
The frequency of a game ending in a 21-point margin is historically around 4 percent, but Team A could be on the winning or losing side of that game. So with this data, we should be able to conclude that the likelihood of a Team A winning by 21 points is approximately 2 percent, right? Not quite.
For example, Oklahoma is playing Kansas State on Saturday. Oklahoma, as the favorite, has a much higher likelihood of winning the game by 21 points than Kansas State.
So let’s look at the frequency of winning by 21, conditional on being the favorite. Of the 4,157 games played over the last five seasons, 32 games were a pick-em, leaving 4,125 instances where there was a favorite and an underdog. There were also 165 instances of a game ending in a 21-point victory, of which 132 of them were won by the favorite. Therefore, conditional on being a favorite, the frequency of winning by 21 points has been 3.2% (132/4125) over the past five years.
Unfortunately, this is not enough to say that a team that is favored by 21 points has a 3.2% probability of pushing. Not all favorites are the same, as some are small favorites and some are large favorites. What we’d like to do is isolate the games that feature a 21-point favorite, or thereabouts.
Over the last five seasons, there have been 219 games featuring a favorite between 20 and 22 points. (Note: we used 20-22 rather than 21 for the sake of increasing our sample size, and therefore our confidence in these insights.) In those 219 games, the favorite won by exactly 21 points on 15 occasions, or 6.8% of the time. While we don’t know with certainty that this represents the true probability of pushing a bet as a 21-point favorite (as there are many other factors in a game), we are much more comfortable with this figure than any of the figures calculated above.
Value of a Half Point
Let’s assume that you want to bet Cal v Utah on Saturday and some books have Cal +21 at -110 while others have Cal +21.5 at -125. Which is the better bet?
Using our push percentage of 6.8%, this turns into a simple arithmetic problem to determine the sportsbooks’ hold. By taking the sum-product of each outcome and the respective payout, we can determine the expected return and expected hold. As you can see below, it is more advantageous for us to lay -125 to get that extra half point to avoid the push.
https://imgur.com/a/YpSCGDQ
Getting the Best Number
Of course, none of this matters unless you have the option to bet both of those lines. This is one of the fundamental reasons why I’ve previously advocated having accounts at multiple sportsbooks.
Hopefully this provides some insight into how to choose lines! As always, please leave feedback in the comments below!

Hello All, I’m semi new to sports betting. I understand the majority of it, but would love some tips on how I should handle tonight’s game. Long story short I did a 9leg parlay this weekend, picking NFL winners and the O/U on each game, and bama -6. I hit 7/8 NFL with the cowboys pushing. The original payout was $5038 on my $17 ticket. How do I calculate the new payout with the push, and how much should I hedge on Clemson for tonight? Look, I’m betting $17 on 9 leg parlays, I could clearly use an extra $1000, so I’m hedging. I’m thinking somewhere around $800-1100 on Clemson at +5 and I’ll buy a half point to ensure I’ll win something. Does this sound right to everyone? Do I still have a chance to lose in any situation?

I originally posted this on the LGoH forums and of course it was taken down in less than 10 minutes as "unapproved." I got feedback from a couple of players who liked the post and found it interesting, one of them encouraged me to post it here for more visibility to the community at large. I apologize in advance for the post as it's 1) long (I tend to be verbose when my brain latches on to an idea) and 2) delves into topics that have less to do with the game mechanics itself and more to do with social engineering. I get that we all play games to escape/enjoy ourselves, but I feel that it's important to ask questions from time to time. And this game has made me question how/why I play games more than any I've other played. Without further ado, here was my banned post and I strongly suggest to click the links and read those as well to provide background and context.
Hey guys, I just had a thought that occurred to me while I was browsing the outrage pr0n the forums have become due to the latest incident in a string of head-scratching business decisions from the company that runs this game.
What if this entire game is a really elaborate social experiment on us gamers as a sample population? I know it sounds really tin-foil-hatted, and there's a really good chance this post gets deleted awfully quick, but stick with me here and hear me out.
The behavior exhibited by the company appears to be some of the most egregious lack of empathy towards a player base that I can remember. And then I got to thinking about it. Did y'all forget about Battlefield 2 and EA's loot box 'situation?' Are any of you aware how much of a mess Battle for Azeroth has been for Blizzard so far? I play WoW, but I've been on-again, off-again for a few years and I'm not really devoted to it any more, mostly a filthy casual. But this whole ordeal with the past commander event has really got me thinking about it.
https://gameanalytics.com/blog/how-to-determine-your-games-player-ltv.html
Here's an article talking about LTV - or Lifetime Value - as an analytic tool to determine how successful a game is/will be. It basically boils a game down to nothing more than statistics. It strips away the veneer that the game is actually something to be enjoyed and portrays it more as "how do I calculate what that enjoyment is worth in terms of ROI - or Return on Investment." Read through the article, it's actually really good. It will go a long ways in explaining the trend of behavior seen in so many developers in the gaming industry as a whole lately, but especially our little experiment here. The key section here to look at is this one:
"As you know, APRU – or ARPDAU – is a game’s daily revenue divided by the number of active users. To use this method to calculate LTV, start by defining what an inactive player is using retention values; chances are you can set this value to a week, ten day, or two week period depending on your game’s historical performance and the complexity of your game. Then take a look at the number of users who expire on a given day, and average that with the number of days from a player’s first visit to the current date (or whatever date you’re considering the end point for the purpose of this exercise). This is your player lifetime value."
APRU is average revenue per user and ARPDAU is essentially the same thing, but down to the micro "daily user" level as it provides more accurate financial granularity. The most important phrase here to focus on is "number of users who expire on a given day." That is a very powerful phrase because it makes the assumption that there WILL be expiration of player accounts on a daily basis. On the surface that seems like a "duh" statement here, but dig a little deeper. In the business model of determining how profitable a given game will be is a measurement based in no small part on the expectation that players will quit. Stop and think about that for a moment. Now apply it to the behavior exhibited by the game company right now.
https://venturebeat.com/2016/05/09/n3tworks-neil-young-takes-a-second-stab-at-mobile-gaming-greatness/
Here is an interview that the company's CEO had with a tech news website back in 2016. During the interview he mentions LTV and 'human behavior,' the latter of which crops up often in discussion about gaming habits. He spends more time talking about behavior and financials than the actual substance of the games themselves. I mean he's running a business after all. If the business isn't profitable, then why make the game in the first place?
Now here's where it gets a little weird. https://www.gamblingsites.com/online-gambling-jurisdictions/us/ Specifically look at the section titled "The Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (UIGEA)." Mentioned in this section is that the legislation contains a whole host of loopholes that have been used by online gambling sites for quite some time, the most notable being "games of skill." If any of y'all pay attention to the news and/or the US professional football league NFL, you'll remember this: https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/07/upshot/the-big-winners-in-fantasy-football-and-the-rest-of-us.html from a few years ago. Basically both companies got taken to court over just how much "skill" was actually involved in the game and whether it constituted actual gambling or not. Reports surfaced of insider information, company employees playing matches on the competitor's website, and some industrious programmers creating all manner of scripts to target unsuspecting new players.
Now clearly this company isn't a sports betting company. That being said, look at the structure of the gem system. Almost everything of value in the game is dependent on gem expenditures. The number of gems earn-able in play without purchase is incredibly small. The cost to buy packs each event can constitute either a significant monetary investment or and even more significant time investment, often with little discreet value to the player per pack purchased. Much more emphasis is put on quantity over quality in terms of all aspects of play. The more you put in the more you are likely to get out, but often those rewards do not line up with effort expended, especially in the F2P track. This is all intentional. If you don't think that, I've got a bridge to sell you haha. However a large portion of the reason there is little ROI for the PLAYERS is due almost entirely to the randomness of the rewards for effort put in. Yes there are rewards that are given out for sheer grind, but the highest rewards come from either an insane amount of time spent playing the game, or a truly astonishing amount of money being put out to skip the effort. This is not even touching on the leaderboards, nor the frequency of events in game which churn out new cards/abilities weekly. But how often have you opened a pack that had "Hero (insert event type or affinity here) 3+" and gotten nothing but outdated 3-star garbage heroes that often aren't even the right event type or affinity? Odds are that unless a reward is specified, the response to that is a resounding "all the damn time!"
Now there was another post on this forum by another player that linked some publicly published articles from company employees who may or may not actually work on this game. Whether they do or not is actually immaterial, it's the philosophy behind the articles that is important. One of them talks openly about the LTV and the other talks about the user experience interacting with random rewards, specifically surrounding the concept of opening up some kind of container be it a pack or an object that contains the reward. They specifically mention the animation choices for opening the random reward container and include an image that looks very much like a slot machine pull arm. Now obviously they aren't mentioning slot machines explicitly, nor is one shown in the article, however check out this article on the neuroscience of slot machines - https://sciencelife.uchospitals.edu/2009/11/09/slot-machines-neuroscience-in-action/ . Notice anything eerily similar between how they talk about the "feel" and experience of opening a pack of cards vs the stimulation of a pull on a slot machine? Doesn't take too much to notice, I'm sure. Again, nothing I'm saying here should come as a surprise to anyone who's made it this far in my wall 'o text.
Here's my theory given the above information. A tl;dr for those of you with not enough attention span hah. This game we play was designed to come as close to monetizing every single portion of the game as possible. The insane amounts of grind are put in place to incentivize purchasing gems as the only real way to accomplish your goals, be they competitive placements or completion of collections. This is the main reason why gem prices are as high as they are and structured so that the "best value" is always the highest priced bundle. They even incentivize it further by including gem bundles that have gem gifts to make you feel like more of a team player by helping out and giving gems to your guild mates. The more you buy, the more you help. On top of this the rewards are advertised as "you could possibly get the best cards at the highest level on this one pack" in the same way slot machines say "the next pull could be a jackpot." Except in both cases, the payout is variable and even when you get a payout, it's often far less than you've already spent. Compounding this is that the communication between the company and the players is almost non-existent and very rarely addresses issues of substance like this. Look how long it took them to add in a way to send gifts without having to tap for each gift. I'm not a programmer, so I don't know how long those things take to code, but given the length of time the request has been in, it shouldn't take as long as it did. As the icing on the cake, whenever there IS player backlash such as in the PACT boycott thing, the response is to calculate the bare minimum response for the shortest amount of time and get back to business as usual. This game is trying to come as close to the marriage of slot machine and rpg as possible and see how long it can last. That's why they don't care if we quit or stop playing. That outcome was already decided before the game launched and factored into the LTV and ROI equations. They're probably planning on the game failing so they can compare notes on this game as compared to others and the NEXT game they put out will be slightly less predatory, but will make FAR more money as a result because they'll find that sweet spot between giving you the high you're looking for and making sure you keep coming back for another hit.
I have seen people talk about other phone app games as an alternative to this one as if that's not something they're watching for as part of their market research. And we're all acting like the gaming industry as a whole console, PC, and phones haven't been doing this for years now. DLC? Finished game product that was likely available at launch that they wanted to withhold so they could extend that LTV. Blizzard has come under some pretty intense fire since restructuring their content release schedule as a cynical way to keep subs on life support a little longer and squeeze out a little more value before losing you. We don't really need to get into the EA fiasco (which I DO incidentally find it funny that the CEO of this game's company was a former EA employee, albeit not tied to their more recent gaffs). Us gamers as a demographic display some rather unhealthy behavioral tendencies and the gaming industry as a whole has just continued to adapt to try and find the best way to get us to keep paying money while reducing their cost to get that money. Just seems that this company in particular is trying to push the boundaries of that envelope and see just how far we as a community can get pushed before we break and revolt. So cheers to us for being excellent lab specimens!
While I am relatively bitter and cynical about this entire thing, as an anthropologist, I can't help but find it fascinating. I imagine if I had used the powers I learned in college for evil, who knows, I might have been on the other side of the screen reading all this data from us and making copious demographic analytics based on the reactions and which accounts they are linked to and studying the trend of who accounts for the most outspoken and what economic class they fit into both within and outside of the game. I'm sure the data is both impressive and deeply interesting. Anyway, apologies for just how massive this post is, and if it comes across as a little out-there. Just food for thought. Stay classy folks